Grangerland, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS64 KHGX 280508
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Continue to use caution when working with open flame or
  equipment that can cause sparks as dry conditions persist across
  the area.
- Hot, dry, and mostly sunny conditions carry us into the new
  week. A brief upper disturbance looks to increase clouds Monday
  night and Tuesday, but a sunnier sky will return after it
  departs.
- Rain chances will be virtually nil until late this week when
  moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze
  showers/storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Five days in, and I gotta admit, I am starting to struggle to find
ways to say that the weather will continue to be fair for several
days, with near to above average highs, low humidity, and a good
bit of sun for most all of the next several days. So...yeah, you
can stick with that and move on if you want, but I`ll try to find
a couple nuances if you want to read on.
In the short term, the story of today will be the continued lack
of humidity across the area. Like Friday, Saturday featured
minimum RH in the 30s for all but those right on the Gulf, and
there were decently large swaths that saw RH fall into the upper
half of the 20s, especially out west of the Brazos. Today,
probably a lot more of the same. Nearly all of us will start out
in the 60s (maybe even a handful in the upper 50s way up north)
and warm up to around 90 degrees while RH again falls into the 30s
and upper 20s in the dry spots.
So far, winds have been in that band where they are just barely
strong enough to keep the seabreeze at bay (at Gulf?) but not
strong enough to cause concerns about fire spread. Today, we may
see them slacken even a touch more. Not enough to markedly change
things, but enough that the immediate coast may not be quite as
dry. By that, I mean RH around or a little above 40 percent rather
than in the 30s. So even in our "most humid" spots on the water,
it will still be fairly dry. The HREF probabilities for sub-40
percent RH is around or higher than 50 percent right up to the
immediate coast, while that signal disappears for the row of
counties right on the Gulf if you step down to 30 percent RH. I
wouldn`t necessarily take those numbers literally as even high res
guidance seems to struggle with afternoon mixing and RH (at least
it`s better than the NBM?) but it probably hits the qualitative
trend pretty well.
The deeper we go into the week, the more we should see the diurnal
seabreeze cycle try to assert itself. We`re still not looking at a
real big push here - synoptic flow will not be super supportive of
a meaningful seabreeze penetration, and this time of year does not
feature the strongest temperature differential between land and
Gulf that drives the circulation. But, we should see at least a
little moisture start to filter its way in bit by bit through the
week. Still not humid, but I`d expect to be a little less dry each
day. By the end of the week, things should moisten up enough that
potential for an isolated seabreeze shower/storm comes back into
the forecast near the coast!
We may also get a little bit of a top-down boost Monday night and
Tuesday as an upper disturbance rolls through the region. We won`t
be anywhere close to being able to generate rain at this point.
But, we should see a brief increase in cloudiness through this
stretch and may see some moisture from above work its way down,
assisting the incremental erasure of the dry conditions a little
bit.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR prevailing. Light and variable winds overnight. ENE winds
return during the day Sunday. Brief ESE winds possible along the
coast late afternoon into early evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Northeast winds will prevail, and strengthen a bit over
yesterday`s winds. Expect winds around 15 knots with 2-4 foot
seas for the next couple of days. If any stronger winds
materialize, small craft will need to exercise caution. Going into
the middle of the week, the daily landbreeze/seabreeze cycle will
become dominant as seas also diminish to less than 2 feet. Late in
the week, strengthening easterlies are forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  89  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  86  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion