Grays, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

784
FXUS62 KCHS 081750
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
150 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will prevail through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rest of this Afternoon: Broad troughing will prevail aloft, with the
trough axis extending southward from north of the Great Lakes
towards to Ohio River Valley. At the surface strong high pressure
over New England will continue to build into the region from the
north while a stalled boundary lingers just to the south of the
region. This set up will result in a pinched pressure gradient
between the building high pressure and the boundary to the south.
Gusty NE winds will persist into this afternoon, generally around 15
to 20 mph. Showers will persist to the south of the region, where
the stalled boundary is located. While some shower activity could
approach coastal southeastern GA where PoPs are around 25%, a dry
forecast exists elsewhere. As cloud cover begins to erode this
afternoon temperatures should quickly jump into the upper 70s to
near 80, however at locations where cloud cover lingers high temps
may only reach into the low to mid 70s.
Tonight: Little change in the synoptic pattern is forecast, with
partly cloudy conditions and overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday through Thursday: Aloft, troughing will prevail across the
eastern CONUS through the mid week time period. At the surface, high
pressure will extend along the Eastern Seaboard while a front
continues to sit offshore. A couple of weak areas of low pressure
could develop along the offshore front during this time, from the
area off the GA/FL coast up to off the NC Outer Banks. The end
result is that the model consensus generally favors a dry forecast
for the forecast area with this setup. Temperatures will start off
well below normal on Tuesday, with highs peaking around 80 for
southeast SC, and into the low 80s for southeast GA. Temperatures
are then expected to steadily warm, with highs peaking in the mid to
upper 80s for most of the area by Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern isn`t expected to change significantly through the
weekend as troughing persists aloft and high pressure remains the
primary feature at the surface. Overall, the forecast continues to
look dry with precipitation remaining offshore. Temperatures are
expected to remain at or slightly below normal through the period
for most locations, with the warmest values across interior
southeast GA where lows 90s will be possible at times.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prevailing VFR through the 18Z TAF period at KCHS. Some
lingering MVFR ceilings will continue to impact KJZI/KSAV
through around 19Z before eroding to VFR through the remainder
of the TAF period. Gusty NE winds around 15 to 20 knots will
develop this afternoon, with elevated winds around 10 knots
forecast overnight. Gusty conditions will likely return tomorrow
(Tuesday) at KCHS/KJZI.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR though there could be a few
periods of restricted ceilings due to late night/early morning
stratus.
&&
.MARINE...
Rest of Today and Tonight: A stalled front will be positioned just
south of the local waters through the period while high pressure
build in across the land zones. This will yield a pinched pressure
gradient, resulting in gusty NE winds. Gusts this afternoon and
tonight are forecast to be around 25 to 30 knots, with up to 25
knots in the Charleston Harbor. Additionally seas initially 4 to 5
ft across the nearshore and 5 to 6 ft across the 20 to 60 nm
offshore GA waters will build to 6 to 7 ft overnight. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for all marine zones, including the
Charleston Harbor.
Tuesday through Saturday: The setup will continue to support
northeast flow across the local waters through the week. Winds will
be strongest on Tuesday, then gradually diminish through Thursday as
the gradient weakens a bit. Then late in the week and into the start
of the weekend the gradient should tighten again and support another
surge of northeast flow. Small Craft Advisories are already in
effect for all local waters and will continue into Wednesday, with
different zones coming down at various times. All advisories should
be down by Wednesday night.
Rip Currents: The combination of persistent northeast winds,
astronomical factors, and elevated swell will yield a high risk of
rip currents at all beaches on Tuesday. An elevated risk of rip
currents is expected to continue through Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will remain elevated through the rest of
the week due to the recent full moon and upcoming lunar perigee
(9/10). Total water levels will also be high with the tidal
departure increasing due to the pinched pressure gradient/ elevated
northeast winds.
Charleston Harbor:
- Moderate coastal flooding is expected for the next four (4) high
tide cycles.
- Minor flooding is possible for the Wednesday evening high tide.
Fort Pulaski:
- Minor coastal flooding is expected for the next four (4) high tide
cycles.
- There is also around a 10% chance of moderate coastal flooding for
this evening`s and Tuesday morning`s high tide.
Tidal departures will then start to come down Thursday into Friday
as the pressure gradient beings to relax.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for GAZ117-119-139-141.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for SCZ048>051.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for
     SCZ048>051.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350-352-
     354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/CPM
MARINE...BSH/CPM

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion