Grover, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS65 KBOU 281124
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
524 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms return
  today, mainly over the mountains.
- Additional weak showers and storms possible Monday and Tuesday.
- Temperatures will remain above normal most days.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
It`s shaping up to be another mild and dry day across the forecast
area today, with temperatures running slightly cooler than yesterday
behind an early morning weak cold front. This morning`s upper-air
charts and satellite water vapor imagery clearly show a closed
upper-level low spinning over SoCal. This feature continues to
keep deeper moisture just to our south and west.
Aside from some increasing afternoon cloud cover, mainly over the
higher terrain, and a slight uptick in southeasterly surface
winds across the plains, it should be a great day to get outside
and catch your favorite Colorado college football team in action!
With limited cloud cover over the lower elevations, temperatures
will cool off fairly quickly after sunset tonight. Expect
overnight lows to dip into the mid to upper 40s and 50s across the
plains, and into the 30s for our mountain valleys.
Looking ahead, a transition in the synoptic pattern is expected on
Sunday, as the aforementioned upper-level low opens up and shifts
northeastward. This will allow subtropical moisture to spread
farther north and east, increasing the potential for scattered
showers and storms, primarily across the higher elevations, but
can`t rule out the possibility of an isolated one or two making
their way onto the lower elevations. Forecast guidance indicates
MLCAPE values between 200-800 J/kg by Sunday afternoon, which
would be sufficient to support isolated lightning and weak storms.
With these being high-based, we could see some gusty outflows,
however, no severe weather is anticipated. Afternoon highs are
expected to run a few degrees above normal, with low to mid 80s
expected across the plains, 60s and 70s for the foothills and
mountain valleys.
QG ascent will increase slightly on Monday as the shortwave moves
across the region. This still looks to be the day with a slightly
higher chance of any showers or storms holding together enough to
make it off the plains, with some guidance showing up to around
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the urban corridor in the afternoon.
Behind the shortwave, ensembles show mostly zonal flow aloft will be
in place for the middle of the week. A trough looks to enter the
Pacific Northwest late in the week that will start to bring
increasing southwesterly flow aloft into Colorado. There are still
some differences with timing and amplitude of the approaching
trough, but we should start to see some moisture return by the end
of the work week, and temperatures start to drop towards near normal
by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 524 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR through the TAF period. South to southwest wind will continue
at APA and DEN through 13-14Z. The wind direction forecast
becomes more uncertain after this, as guidance hints at some sort
of cyclone or a shear boundary stalling out near the terminals.
While speeds will remain fairly light (forecast under 10kt), low
confidence in the prevailing direction.
A few showers are expected to develop after 21Z, thus will
continue with the PROB30 with gusty outflow winds expected to be
the main impact. Can`t rule out a weak thunderstorm as well, but
the chance for a storm is around 10 percent.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...Meier

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion