Gulliver, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

064
FXUS63 KMQT 291643
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1243 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern with near to above
average temperatures holds this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Water vapor imagery/surface analysis early this morning shows Upper
Michigan still under the influence of high pressure. This has
allowed for substantial radiational cooling this morning under clear
skies. Some of the lowest reports at this time include 38 degrees at
Seney and 39 degrees in Ishpeming. These are followed by 40 degrees
at Shingleton and Doe Lake. Temperatures will warm up, though, above
normal later today with highs projected in the mid to upper 70s and
even possibly some low 80s across the interior west. Fire
weather will continue to need to be monitored, but should not
reach limited to elevated criteria with RH values above 30% and
light winds. A strong sfc high pressure moving through Ontario
towards James Bay brings a backdoor cold front late tonight into
Tuesday. No precip is expected given the dry conditions in
place. Breezy E to NE flow behind the front will keep Tuesday in
the low to mid 70s.
Upper level ridging persists through much of the midweek, keeping
above normal temps and little to no precip chances in the forecast
until this coming weekend. Deterministic models begin to breakdown
the stout central US ridge Fri/Sat, sending in embedded shortwaves
and reintroducing precipitation chances. Opting to maintain NBM PoPs
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue over the TAF sites as high
pressure ridging persists over the region. However, some of the
model guidance such as the LAMP and NAM have upslope FG developing
over CMX tonight; while I left it out of the TAF for now because I
think the chances of it actually occurring are too low given the
dryness and high pressure overhead, I`m mentioning it here as there
is a notable non-zero chance that it could occur given the overnight
easterly upslope winds (while non-zero, chances are much, much lower
for FG over IWD and SAW late tonight too). Speaking of the winds,
expect the generally SW to W winds this afternoon to become more
E`rly tonight and to pick up a little Tuesday morning as low
pressure troughing begins to develop over the Northern Plains.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Breezy S to SW winds 15-25 kts expected this afternoon mainly across
the western arm of Lake Superior where a brief tightening of the
surface pressure gradient exists between a sfc high sagging into the
lower lakes and a weak developing low in the N Plains. While light
winds of 20 knots or less are expected Monday, with sfc troughing
setting up over the Northern Plains from Tuesday onwards, expect
east to southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 knots to develop over the
lake Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually becoming southerly on
Thursday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion