Gurn Spring, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

470
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
735 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and weak cold front moves through early tonight
with some intervals of clouds, as high pressure builds in for
Friday. Seasonable temps close the week with the surface high in
control. An upper level disturbance and a cold front may bring a few
showers and thunderstorms north of the Capital Region late Saturday
afternoon into Sunday morning, as fair and dry weather with above
normal temperatures return next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 212 pm EDT...Another nice late summer day with abundant
sunshine and temps with near to slightly above normal max temps.
A weak cold front and an upper level trough continue to
approach eastern NY and western New England this afternoon and
will move across the area early tonight with partly cloudy
skies. The boundary is moisture starved. A 1027 hPa or so sfc
anticylone will quickly ridge in from southeast Quebec with
clear/mostly skies and light to calm winds. Some radiational
mist or fog is possible in the valley areas with lows win the
40s to lower 50s, though some upper 30s are possible in the
Adirondack Park.
High pressure will bring mostly sunny/sunny conditions due to
the subsidence with the ridge on Fri with temps near normal.
Max temps were used closer the the NBM and GFS MOS and above
the cooler MET MOS with highs in the mid/upper 70s in the
valleys and 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain.
Fri night into Sat...the sfc anticyclone slowly retreats off
the New England Coast Fri night. Near ideal radiational cooling
conditions again early on, but some mid/high clouds may increase
from the west late. Lows will be in the 40s with some lower 50s
in the mid Hudson Valley and northwest CT. The weekend should
open mainly dry, but approaching short-wave trough and a cold
front will continue to increase the clouds with a slight to low
chance of a shower or thunderstorm northwest of the Capital
Region in the late afternoon. Temps ahead of the disturbance
will be about 3-5 degrees above normal with upper 70s to close
to 80F below 1000 ft in elevations and mid 60s to mid 70s above
it.
Limited low-level moisture and convergence occurs with the cold
front and short-wave, and we kept PoPs 15-30% north of the Tri
Cities. There might be some light sprinkles further south. Lows
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the higher terrain
and lower to mid 50s over the rest of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The latest trends with NBM and the ensembles are drier for the
second half of the weekend with the upper level trough passage.
We did keep some slight chance PoPs northeast of the Capital
Region in the morning and closer to the I-84 corridor in the
late pm/evening based on collab with WFO OKX. Some of the
deterministic medium range guidance keep isolated to scattered
across the region, such as the GFS. Better mixing in the wake
of the front and trough should allow temps to still run above
normal to close the weekend with mixed clouds and sunshine.
Highs in the upper 70s to around 80F will be common in the lower
elevations and mid/upper 60s to mid 70s over the highs and
mtns.
Our forecast reflects drier trends Sunday night into Monday with
high pressure building in from southeast Canada. A closed/cut-
off low sets up over the Mid Atlantic States for Mon-Tue. Some
periods of clouds or light sprinkles could reach the southern-most
zones early in the week. We maintained a dry forecast for now.
Temps continue to trend 5-7 degrees above normal for mid-Sept
with upper 40s to mid 50s for lows and highs in the 70s to lower
80s. The Rex Block continues to strengthen over the East Coast
with high pressure over NY and New England and the closed/cut-
off low south of the region and near the Mid Atlantic Coast
through the mid week. If the high weakens, then potentially some
moisture could move northward. A few showers may get close to the
Adirondacks late Thu from a cold front. However, persistent dry
conditions continue with temps finishing the mid week above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through 03Z/Fri, then patchy fog
development may occur at KGFL, especially between 06Z-10Z/Fri
when intermittent IFR/LIFR conditions are possible. Elsewhere,
the combination of patchy clouds and a light breeze may limit
fog development. For now, have not included any mention, however
can not rule out a slight chance (~20%) for some patchy fog
developing between 07Z-11Z/Fri at KPSF should there be less
cloud cover. Any patchy fog/low clouds should dissipate by
13Z/Fri, with VFR conditions then prevailing. North to northeast
winds should average less than 5 KT overnight and Friday
morning, then become variable at 4-8 KT Friday afternoon, mainly
from the northwest to north.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Saturday to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion