Hackett, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

480
FXUS63 KFGF 260738
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
238 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance of thunderstorms in far northwest MN ahead of cold
  front this evening.
- Continued well above normal temps into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...Synopsis...
High pressure centered near Baudette and International Falls at
08z. Calm conditions in this area allowing temps to drop into
the upper 30s and low 40s. High slides east quickly early this
morning with a southeast then south wind increasing thru the
today, first in eastern ND and the Red River valley. Strongest
wind gusts in the northeast ND and the northern Red River valley
with gusts 25-30 kts. Cold front from the west moves into DVL
region late afternoon and east thru the valley early evening and
into NW/WC MN late evening and overnight. A narrow ribbon of
instability does develop with MUCAPE values nearing 1000 j/kg in
far NW MN 00z in an area where 30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear exists
along with a narrow zone of dew pts in the 55-58 range. It looks
like a good chance for a band of t-storms to form 00z-03z into
far NW MN and eastern Manitoba ahead of the front moving into
Baudette area 03z-06z then exists. How far south precip chances
get is uncertain, but for now will stick where models indicate
850 mb moisture is higher which is mainly near and north of
Bemidji-Thief River Falls-Grafton ND.
Brief gusty WNW winds behind the front in E ND this evening,
then high pressure builds east later tonight into Saturday.
Sunny this weekend into early next week as 500 mb heights rise
ahead of likely upper trough moving into the west coast and
western Canada. GFS is the odd man out and does have a few
showers in a warm advection pattern Monday aftn along the Intl
Border. Warm Monday with highs 78-86 from north to south.
Rest of next week, shows low confidence due to model run
variability with overall ensemble consensus keeping a low chance
for precip mid to late week as area in SW flow aloft, but any
major 500 mb systems remain well west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR will prevail throughout the TAF period, with no aviation
impacts expected. Light and variable winds overnight will pick
up in the morning from the south/southeast, becoming gusty in
the afternoon. Gusts will drop off after sunset Friday evening,
but an approaching cold front will begin to shift the wind
direction to the northwest late in the TAF period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion