Hallsburg, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

799
FXUS64 KFWD 220636
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
136 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated storms remain possible overnight in North Texas.
  Additional rain chances will linger through this afternoon in
  the northeast. Severe weather is not expected.
- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday with increasing storm chances. Some storms could be
  severe with damaging winds and hail.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Tuesday Afternoon/
Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to linger
across North Texas over the next several hours as the upper level
low shifts further east into Arkansas and Louisiana. Overnight, a
deck of low-level stratus is expected to move northward into
Central Texas, leading to a gray morning. While most of currently
lingering activity should completely diminish by morning, there
will remain a chance for some isolated to scattered convection in
our far northeastern zones through the afternoon due to some
lingering ascent on the back edge of the departing shortwave. Most
will remain dry tomorrow, with only some passing cloud cover
expected overhead. Afternoon highs will be able to peak in the
low- upper 90s for most.
Well to our north, a digging shortwave in the PACNW will advance
south, amplifying into a closed low as it moves overtop the
Rockies later today. The upper low is expected to swing across the
Southern-Central Plains as we head into Tuesday, shunting a
strong cold front southward. Ahead of the front, winds will veer
out of the southwest, allowing afternoon highs to again peak in
the low-upper 90s across North and Central Texas. The front is
progged to reach our northwestern counties later in the day, but
there is potential for some isolated to scattered showers and
storms in the late afternoon near and along the boundary as it
approaches.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Evening Onward/
The front will continue to move through the region late Tuesday
into Wednesday, with the bulk of precipitation along the front
expected to occur Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Initial
storms will likely have a discrete mode, eventually growing
upscale into clusters and line segments as the front moves further
into North and Central Texas. The environment out ahead of the
front will be characterized by CAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, around
30-40 kts of deep shear, and ~6.5 degC/km lapse rates, on top of
1.50"+ PWATs. All this being said, there is a potential for strong
to severe storms capable of strong-damaging wind gusts, hail, and
heavy rain. The severe threat will be highest near the ArkLaTex
and areas east since the upper low itself and the greatest lift
will swing across that region. However, areas across North Texas
will still have a severe threat Tuesday night into Wednesday with
the same hazards as above. The front will continue to move
southward over the day Wednesday with rain chances being shunted
south, with all rain chances coming to an end by Thursday. Cooler
air will continue to filter in behind the front, with afternoon
highs in the 80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s expected
Wednesday through the end of the week. The airmass will begin to
moderate over the weekend as E-SE winds return, promoting
afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer in the mid 80s to low
90s.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Lingering showers with an occasional lightning strike will
continue to decline over the next couple of hours at the D10 TAF
sites, with no additional precipitation expected after ~08Z.
Overnight, a surge of low-level MVFR stratus is expected to move
north into Central Texas, approaching ACT near daybreak. While the
majority of the cigs will remain east and south of ACT, there is
a small window between 13-15Z that MVFR cigs could impact the
airport, and have introduced a short TEMPO group. Any cigs will
lift back to VFR late in the morning, with VFR persisting through
the rest of today at all sites. Today will be drier, with any rain
being confined to near the ArkLaTex. Another round of MVFR
stratus may advance northward heading into Tuesday morning, but
this is just out of the current TAF period and will be included in
future issuances if needed.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  95  72  84  66 /  70   5   5  10  70
Waco                74  95  74  86  66 /  30   5   0   5  50
Paris               72  92  70  82  62 /  40  30  10  20  80
Denton              74  95  68  84  61 /  70   5   5  20  70
McKinney            74  95  70  84  63 /  60  10   5  20  70
Dallas              76  97  73  85  67 /  70   5   5  10  70
Terrell             74  94  72  84  64 /  40   5   5  10  70
Corsicana           75  95  75  87  67 /  20   5   0   5  60
Temple              73  95  73  87  65 /  10   5   0   5  40
Mineral Wells       74  97  68  84  61 /  70   0   5  20  60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion