Haynes, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

262
FXUS63 KBIS 290531
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions
  continue through the middle of this week.
- Mostly dry conditions continue through the middle of this
  week. Low chances for rain return at the end of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The only forecast change for this update was to add patchy fog
early Monday morning across portions of Grant, Hettinger, and
Adams Counties. This area is forecast to lie in an inverted
surface trough with a pooling of mid to upper 50s dewpoints. Mid
to high clouds could be an inhibiting factor for fog formation,
but model soundings show strong subsidence and light winds in
the above-surface inversion layer, and dewpoint depressions are
already low.
UPDATE
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
No major forecast changes are needed with this update. Mid to
high clouds will continue to stream over the region through the
evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A transition to southwest flow aloft may bring some mid to high
level clouds tonight, although mainly dry and mild temperatures
look to continue with ridging still aloft. An increased gradient
at the surface could bring some breezy southerly winds through
this evening, mainly in the south central and southeast. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with some lower
60s. Areas with these warmer overnight lows could see some
patchy fog form if winds can relax some. Confidence in this
forming is low at this time, and not included in the current
forecast. Southwest flow aloft further builds into the area on
Monday with a weak warm front setting up in central to northern
North Dakota. This front will maintain highs in the 80s for most
areas, and could bring some breezy winds to northwestern
portions of the state. Some increased dewpoints may also bring
some increased instability for Monday. SPC has general thunder
risk in the forecast. Confidence in any thunderstorm is low at
this time, although did add some 10% pops to areas along and
east of Highway 83. These areas currently show some increased
instability. The lack of shear and overall lack of moisture in
the atmosphere should limit thunderstorm coverage tomorrow, if
any, and the threat for severe weather. Warm southerly flow will
remain Monday night, with the lack of heating diminishing any
thunderstorm chances. Overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s
are forecast.
Tuesday through midweek is still forecast to see warm
temperatures and limited chances for precipitation continue.
Each of these days will have at least some weak instability,
although dry conditions and the lack of lift should limit
thunderstorm chances. A weak surface low moving through the
region could bring some breezy winds to the area on Tuesday,
lingering across the east on Wednesday. This combined with some
lowering RH values could bring at least some increased fire
weather concerns, although confidence on the two parameters
lining up is low to moderate at this time. Relatively green
fuels may also limit this threat. Highs Tuesday through Thursday
are forecast to remain in the 80s, with lows in the 50s and
60s. Temperature spreads are fairly compact these days,
indicating high confidence in these above normal temperatures
remaining. Later next week ensembles hinting at a change to a
troughing pattern moving into the area. This could bring cooler
temperatures and better chances for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. Temperature spreads still remain somewhat large,
yet show an overall cooling trend to at least night or perhaps
slightly below normal. Timing and track of this initial trough
will also determine precipitation chances. Some clusters
indicate this wave could be more of a split wave, which
depending how these splits progress could bring more or less of
a chance for precipitation. Overall high confidence in a cooler
pattern later this upcoming week with at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR ceilings and visibility are generally expected through the
period, though models show some hints at patchy fog developing
in southwestern and south central ND tonight. Confidence
remains too low to add to the TAFs at this time, however.
Otherwise, breezy easterly winds are expected across parts of
the state Monday, especially in the northwest.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion