Helmuth, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

371
FXUS61 KBUF 141051
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few spotty showers will continue to be possible across the North
Country through next few hours this morning. Surface high pressure
will then spread into the region today and remain overhead through
the first half of the week. This being said, dry weather will
persist and allow for above normal temperatures to return.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A longwave trough centered over the Northeast will exit into
Atlantic today, allowing for a ridge to build east across the Great
Lakes. As a result, spotty showers associated with the exiting
trough will continue this morning across the North Country.
Surface high pressure over northern Ontario will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes today, before setting up residency across the
Northeast by Monday. As a result, expect bountiful amounts of dry
weather today and tonight. Lingering moisture across the river
valleys of the Southern Tier and Black river will support some fog
to develop tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights rise through the period as surface high pressure remains
anchored across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. This will
ensure fair, dry weather through the period. This will also support
a warming trend with most daytime temperatures reaching summer-like
readings in the 80s by Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Closed low over the Carolinas/Virginia to start the period will
continue to weaken, eventually becoming an open wave by Thursday as
it moves northeast just off the southern New England coast with high
pressure over our area acting to deflect whatever is left of the low
to our southeast. This should keep dry weather intact through the
first half of the period, with any shower activity approaching areas
to our southeast out of western and northcentral NY through
Thursday. As the upper trough departs, surface high pressure remains
in place Friday, while the axis of the upper level ridge that has
been parked just to our west for the better part of the week
progresses eastward into the lower Great Lakes. These features
should keep at least mainly dry weather intact through the end of
the work week.
Confidence lowers considerably by the tail end of the period with
medium range guidance showing large discrepancies in the placement
of large scale features and thus overall pattern evolution. NBM has
some slight chance PoPs painted in across the area by Friday night
and Saturday, which looks reasonable at this point with temperatures
trending more toward average.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The axis of an upper level trough over New England will continue to
pass into the Atlantic Ocean this morning, supporting a few spotty
showers and cloud cover over the North Country. This being said some
localized MVFR ceilings will be possible across the North Country,
though this will likely stay out KART. Meanwhile across western New
York skies are clear, supporting ample radiational cooling and fog
to develop across the the river valley of the Southern Tier,
impacting KJHW bringing visibilities down to IFR at times. Fog will
then dissipate an hour or two after sunrise.
Surface high pressure will then spread south into the lower Great
Lakes today supporting dry weather, clear skies, and VFR conditions
to prevail. Clear skies tonight will support ample radiational
cooling and fog to develop.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR overnight valley fog across the
western Southern Tier will be possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Light breezes and minimal wave action expected on the lakes today as
high pressure builds south into the region behind a weak passing
cold front.
A period of persistent northeasterly winds will develop tonight
through Tuesday night as the center of the sfc high slowly migrates
across southern Quebec to New England. This may result in a bit more
chop on the waters, especially along the western end of Lake Ontario
and the Chautauqua County shoreline, though in general SCA
conditions are not expected through the week.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion