Hernando, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

185
FXUS62 KTBW 190407
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1207 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Surface high pressure to the north has built over west central
and southwest Florida with drier air aloft advecting over the
region. This will reduce the chance of showers/thunderstorms
through the weekend with predominately dry very warm conditions
expected each day.
Early next week, the area of high pressure will begin to retreat
with boundary layer flow becoming east allowing deep layer
moisture to push back over the forecast area...with an increasing
chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highest pops will
be over southwest Florida in region of best available deep layer
moisture...with pops gradually decreasing from south to north. This
pattern will hold through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of tonight and on
Friday with mostly clear skies through early morning...with some
SCT LCL BKN250 over southwest Florida. Partly cloudy skies
expected on Friday with generally SCT030-040 SCT250 at all
terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Primarily east to northeast winds expected through early next
week remaining below cautionary levels each day. The offshore flow
will keep seas to 2 feet or less each day...with possible seas of
3 feet across the outer central waters over the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient low level
moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values
above critical levels each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  92  76 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  91  74  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
GIF  92  73  92  74 /  10   0  20   0
SRQ  91  73  91  74 /  10   0  10  10
BKV  91  69  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  89  76  90  76 /   0   0  10  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion