Hernshaw, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

150
FXUS61 KRLX 241010
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
610 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues into the
weekend as multiple disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...
Today the area will be under the influence of the
semi-stationary low pressure system over the Great Lakes as its
upper level trough hangs snug across the region. A weak wave of
low pressure is forecast to develop along the aforementioned
systems frontal boundary and drift northeast just past our CWA.
This feature will drag a warm frontal boundary into the area
supporting shower and storm activity throughout the day.
SPC has our entire area under a marginal for severe
thunderstorm threat and soundings support this with modest
instability, decent to strong shear and a synoptic feature
driving through the area today all of which will create the
potential for stronger to severe storms. The main threat will be
damaging wind, however another important threat will be heavy
downpours.
WPC has much of our area under a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. This could promote excessive rainfall under heavy
thunderstorm activity or even shower activity for that matter
as PWATs are near 2 inches and the low to mid levels are super
saturated. Not too mention most soundings are implying long
skinny CAPE which will support localized flooding potential
under heavy downpours, especially since we have had some decent
rainfall in the last 24 hours across much of the area.
By late morning likely to categorical PoPs will be on the table
for the entire period going into Thursday morning. Cloudy skies
and rainfall activity will suppress daytime heating to where
temperatures are forecast not to break into the 80 degree mark
and otherwise stay withing the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints will
stay elevated today with low 70s by the afternoon which will
also aid in the support of shower and storm activity being so
moist and saturated. The only thing that may deter some
activity will be weak lapse rates under warm air advection.
One thing to note is isentropic ascent will aid in the
moisture transport, therefore with high DCAPE values and water
loading within storms from a super saturated column all of
which could promote downbursts which will support the damaging
wind associated within heavy thunderstorms activity.
Collaboration with partners about a flood watch took place, but
elected to hold off since we are in drought status still. Hi-res
models also did not support too much convection this period and
therefore rates should be less under a mainly stratiform rain
regime.
Tonight temperatures will stay elevated and high moisture
content will allow for more activity throughout the nighttime
hours. Lows in the mid 60s to even the upper 60s in some
locations which will keep a warm muggy night going into the
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Wednesday...
A cold front will be nearly stalled across the area Thursday
morning. An upper level low to our northwest will eventually
evolve into a deep trough and start pushing eastward. This will
push the cold front further eastward and east of our area
late Thursday or Thursday night. Training of showers and
thunderstorms along the front while it is stalled does lead to
concerns for possible flash flooding.
The upper trough will push through the area Thursday night into
Friday, allowing for some showers behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Wednesday...
Models show that as the upper trough pulls away from the region,
it leaves behind a cut off low over the southeast United States.
This upper low may push some moisture back into the region,
allowing for chances of showers through the weekend and into
the next work week. The best chances for this precipitation will
be over the mountains and southern counties.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wednesday...
Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected today with
possibly some stronger to severe storms with the main threat of
damaging wind gusts. Some brief restrictions to VIS under
heavier shower activity is expected but should rebound quickly.
CIGs may drop to MVFR during the late morning and through the
afternoon they may decrease even further, however by tonight
CIGs will likely go IFR at most sites under low stratus. MVFR
CIGs will come back to the area early Thursday morning.
Southerly flow will dominate and we could see gusty conditons
during the afternoon at all sites, but nothing higher than
20kts, unless any site takes a direct hit from a storm.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rainfall and associated
restrictions will likely vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              WED 09/24/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the work week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion