Honey Creek, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

259
FXUS63 KMKX 240903
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
403 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A small chance (20 percent at best) for lake effect and other
  showers in the east today into Thursday morning along the
  lakeshore, with conditions drying out by the end of the week.
- Beach Hazards Statement for Milwaukee County beaches south to
  Kenosha County from mid-morning today into early Thursday
  morning.
- Above normal temperatures return this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 403 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Today through Thursday:
Low clouds continue to push in from the northeast early this
morning along with the arrival of cooler temps aloft. The clouds
and cooler conditions will result in highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 today, around normal for late September. There could
be an isolated shower or two in the east today into early Thursday,
as an upper level low drops southward across Lake Michigan. Not
out of the question for a lake effect shower or two as well,
given sfc to 850 mb temp differences of 10-12. Kept precip
chances on the low end though, given these marginal delta Ts
along with the mean low level flow becoming more northerly than
northeast as the colder temps aloft move in.
Should see a bit more sunshine Thursday as low pressure pulls
away and surface high pressure builds into the area. High temps
will be a little milder in the low to mid 70s.
Bumped up the start time to 10 am CDT for the Beach Hazards
Statement for beaches from Milwaukee County south to Kenosha
County. Waves of 3 to 5 feet on gusty northerly winds will
bring high swim risk conditions to this area, with moderate swim
risk conditions for Ozaukee County beaches. Stay out of the
water and away from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls.
DDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 403 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Thursday night through Tuesday:
500 mb cluster analysis is in decent agreement with showing an
anomalous 500 mb ridge axis gradually developing over the Great
Lakes and eastern Canada during this period. This will steer
weather systems to the north of the area during most of this
period, with high pressure at the surface slowly pushing east
into the region. Ensembles suggest a fairly dry period of weather
as a result into the first half of next week.
The building 500 mb ridge should also allow for gradual warm air
advection to occur, which should result in above normal
temperatures this weekend into perhaps a good portion of next
week. Highs may reach well into the 70s or perhaps around 80
degrees for most of this period, with lows in the 50s. This is
supported by the NBM temperature spreads being relatively small,
with ensembles also favoring these warm temperatures.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 403 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Areas of IFR to MVFR ceilings will continue to push in from the
northeast early this morning, likely persisting through at least
late morning. Daytime mixing should help to raise ceilings to
VFR during the afternoon hours, with less clouds expected
overnight. Could see some lake effect clouds linger in the far
east overnight, possibly briefly dipping to MVFR. An isolated
shower or two may move through eastern areas today and tonight,
but otherwise dry weather is expected. Northerly winds of 5 to
10 knots are expected today, possibly as high as 15 knots near
the lake. Lighter winds will return tonight.
DDV
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 403 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Gusty north to northeast winds will continue into Thursday, as
low pressure around 29.7 inches slowly moves northeast over the
Ohio River Valley. Bumped up the start time of the Small Craft
Advisory to 10 am CDT given the latest wave forecast.
Winds will weaken Thursday night, as high pressure around 30.0
inches moves over the region. Some lake effect showers may occur
with the northeast winds. Conditions do not look supportive for
waterspouts at this time. South to southwest winds should then
occur Friday into Saturday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches
moves into the region.
DDV
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...10 AM
     Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Wednesday to 7 AM
     Thursday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion