Hooker, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

144
FXUS64 KAMA 072259
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
559 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow across the
  Panhandles. Some of the storms may become severe, with large
  hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
- Mostly dry conditions are forecast Wednesday through Saturday
  with temperatures near average each afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts scattered
low to mid level clouds remaining in place across much of the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The cloud cover has limited some of
the daytime heating potential for this afternoon, but high
temperatures should still reach the lower 80s. Attention turns to
the thunderstorm threat for the western Panhandles later this
afternoon through this evening. A rather weak shortwave trough is
expected to move southeast towards the Panhandles later today.
This feature should be enough to generate at least isolated to
perhaps scattered storms across northeastern New Mexico. Severe
thunderstorm parameters are sufficient for a few storms to become
severe, with large hail being the primary hazard given cool mid
level temperatures. Just how far east and the storm mode remain
uncertain and the latest CAMs are not leading to higher confidence
in any one scenario. Storms may be able to sustain themselves due
to a 30-40 kt LLJ through the overnight hours even though the
severe threat should wane.
Additional storms may develop or move across the northeastern
Panhandles early Monday morning. This activity will be associated
with a shortwave moving across western Kansas. Cloud cover should
clear out across much of the region by late morning on Monday to
allow highs to reach the mid 80s to low 90s for the central and
western zones. A narrow band of surface moisture with dew points
in the mid to upper 60s is forecast to set-up across the eastern
Panhandles on Monday afternoon. The higher moisture content
combined with an additional shortwave impulse propagating over the
High Plains may lead to additional thunderstorm development
Monday afternoon into the evening. Tremendous uncertainty exists
in this scenario and if storms do form, they could quickly become
severe. The 07/12z suite of guidance disagrees on if storms will
form or the location in which they could. Storm formation will
depend upon the strength of the shortwave and how much daytime
heating occurs across the east due to the higher moisture,
potential morning storms, and cloud cover.
If storms are able to form across the east during the afternoon or
evening hours, the environment will be primed for storms to become
severe. Forecast soundings indicate MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg
(slightly higher with some of the more moisture rich guidance)
along with bulk shear values around 40 kts. These values may lead
to large to very large hail, especially if isolated supercells
form. Guidance indicates a LLJ of 30 kts may develop during the
late afternoon and potentially increases up to 40 kts by early to
mid evening. This feature would drastically increase the veering
low level wind shear vectors and could lead to a tornado threat in
addition to the other severe storm hazards. Again, there is a lot
of uncertainty whether or not storms will form but Monday evening
for the eastern Panhandles should be monitored closely. If any
storms form, they should diminish during the night with the severe
threat quickly decreasing by midnight.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
H500 troughing across the west with ridging over the Plains looks to
remain in place through the start of next weekend. High pressure is
expected to set up over the southern High Plains which will aid in
keeping temperatures near average and keep mostly dry conditions for
the Panhandles. Even though the pattern favors drier conditions,
some mid level moisture appears to remain over the Panhandles which
could lead to isolated showers and storms on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The center of the high pressure system may sit over the CWA on
Thursday and Friday which should keep conditions dry on both of
these days. The ridge may start to be pushed enough to the east by
Friday night into early next weekend and may allow for moisture to
return and shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly upper level flow
may lead to rain development, favoring the western Panhandles at
this time. Breezy southerly winds are forecast each day along with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
combined OK/TX Panhandles over the next 6 to 12 hours. Confidence
is any one of the terminals being impacted is low enough to leave
out of the TAFs at this time. Therefore, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at this time. South to southwesterly winds are
expected to prevail around 12 to 15 kts with maybe some slightly
higher gusts after 18Z.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...36

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion