Hookerton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

792
FXUS62 KMHX 100801
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
401 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move north along a stalled frontal boundary
just offshore of ENC today. High pressure will then build back
in from the north and west through late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A stalled frontal boundary will persist
off the coast today with an area of low pressure currently
southeast of Cape Hatteras slowly lift NNE along the boundary
today. Abundant low level moisture is advecting into the region
bring widespread stratus across ENC and expect mainly cloudy
skies to continue through the day. Southern area will have the
best chance of seeing some breaks of sun this afternoon. Weak
shortwave energy passing over the area and sfc convergence
along a trough across the area could be sufficient to bring
occasional light rain or drizzle across the area with best
chances across coastal and northern sections of the FA where
low level moisture will be deepest. QPF amounts are expected to
be light with saturated conditions remaining below the dendritic
growth zone. Temps will continue to be below normal with highs
in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Low pressure will lift away from the
area tonight but the frontal boundary will remain offshore with
high pressure centered to the north ridging into the area.
Little change in sensible weather tonight with northerly winds
and abundant moisture remaining trapped below a strong low
level inversion bringing mostly cloudy skies and chances for
light rain or drizzle continuing. Lows will be in the mid 60s
inland to around 70 along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Cooler, drier conditions this week
- Coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Wed along OBX
- Dry end to the work week as high pressure builds again
A second high builds in from the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night. There are some indications of a weak low forming along
the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this
coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted
trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if
any, are expected with very low confidence on the timing, track,
and intensity of the low should it form. This results in a
higher degree of uncertainty for the forecast this weekend
onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions through the short term.
A frontal boundary remains stalled just off the NC coast with an
area of low pressure centered southeast of Cape Hatteras. The
low will slowly move north-northeast off the coast today and
lifting well away from the area tonight. Abundant low level
moisture is advecting into ENC below a strong low level
inversion bringing widespread stratus across rtes. Pred IFR cigs
expected through this morning then is expected to lift to MVFR
this afternoon. Far southern rtes may see cigs lift to VFR
briefly late this afternoon into the evening but cigs will lower
again overnight with widespread IFR expected. Moisture may be
deep enough with weak forcing aloft as a shortwave moves over
the area to bring light showers at times, especially across
northern rtes. Northerly winds will continue through the period
with gusts around 15-20 kt this afternoon.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Lingering low ceilings are possible into
Thursday. Thereafter, generally VFR flight conditions expected
through the long term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages...
- Small Craft conditions continue north of Ocracoke Inlet
  through tonight for elevated seas.
Low pressure will slowly lift NNE along a stalled frontal
boundary across the offshore waters today into tonight. Nly
winds have diminished to around 10-20 kt last evening and will
persist through the short term. Seas have also subsided to
around 4-6 ft last evening, however, wave guidance continues to
be about a foot underdone across the central and northern
waters and adjusting accordingly, seas may linger around 6 ft
north of Ocracoke Inlet into Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Near Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through the
  remainder of the work week
- Another chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions late
  Friday into the weekend
Seas continue to abate as winds ease into Thursday with seas 3-5
ft. Trough strengthens offshore, maybe resulting in a weak low,
as we approach the weekend. This will result in gusty
north/northeasterly winds 25-30kt late Friday into the weekend.
Higher than normal level of uncertainty with the magnitude of
the winds at the end of the long term period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 745 PM Tuesday...
The combination of persistent (but sub-gale) northeast winds,
and higher than normal astronomical tides will continue to
produce elevated waters levels through most of the work week.
Depending on wind and tide fluctuations, water levels will
likely be a few feet above normal, and as much as 1 to 2 feet
AGL (above ground level). The highest water levels are expected
along the southern Pamlico Sound and adjacent tidal rivers and
creeks, as well as across Core and Bogue Sounds. In this area, a
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect to highlight the
potential for minor impacts.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion