Hot Spring Landing, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

495
FXUS65 KPIH 140851
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
251 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near normal temperatures today; much cooler Monday.
- Shortwave will bring isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon through Monday night.
- Drier and warmer pattern for mid to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A transitory ridge is gradually shifting eastward and over Southeast
Idaho overnight through the first part of Sunday. This will result
in a dry period through early afternoon and warmer daytime
temperatures close to normal, generally mid 70s to low 80s in our
valleys and 50s and 60s in the mid to high elevations. This period
of warmer and drier conditions will be fleeting, as a shortwave
arrives this evening with increasing mid-level and high clouds
beginning after sunrise this morning. This shortwave will kick off
the next batch of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across central Idaho during the early afternoon, from the central
mountains south into the South Hills. Activity will spread
northeastward during the evening and continue through around sunrise
Monday. There is still quite a bit of variation amongst HREF members
regarding convective coverage and location of storms, so confidence
in thunderstorm probabilities across certain areas remains lower
than ideal. Storms today will be capable of gusty winds and small
hail, with the  HREF ensemble max wind indicating gusts ranging 40
to 50 mph during the late afternoon into early evening hours,
especially in central and south-central Idaho. Overnight lows
tonight will be very similar to those observed the past several
nights, remaining mild in the mid to high 40s across the low
elevations, 30s in the mountains, and 40s in mountain valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Meteorologically, fall arrived on September first. Astronomically,
it arrives on the 22nd. Practically speaking, we get a real taste of
it on Monday. Highs will be in the 60s for most with partly cloudy
skies and rain showers for at least the higher elevations of the
Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands as an upper level low passes
through Idaho. As far as precipitation goes, the NBM shows about a
10 to 20 percent chance for at least a tenth of an inch of QPF on
Monday for the Snake River Plain and that increases to about a 30 to
50 percent chance for parts of the Central Mountains and Eastern
Highlands. It will be a bit breezy on Monday, too, with gusts around
20 to 25 mph. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday look like dry days as
high pressure builds back in over the area and we begin to warm into
the low and mid 70s Tuesday, mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, and
finally reach the upper 70s and low 80s on Thursday. The longer
range models are hinting at another system potentially heading our
way for next weekend, but that`s way too far out to get into any
specifics just yet, though it may at least bring another slight cool
down.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Following a quiet night, modestly breezy diurnal winds will increase
again at most terminals Sunday afternoon, with high-res CAMs
offering several different ideas of what isolated thunderstorm
potential might look like. This continues to grant us low confidence
in adding mention to the TAFs at this time, but overall potential
and model agreement seems highest at KSUN starting around 22z/4pm,
thus have gone ahead with a PROB30 group. This timing matches a
potential wind shift from SE to SW there as well. Ensemble max wind
gust solutions are suggesting a few storms late Sunday
afternoon/evening may produce wind gusts in excess of 40 MPH...with
some support from DCAPE and shallow inverted-V profiles on forecast
soundings.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
East Idaho remains under the influence of the slowly exiting upper
trough this afternoon. Mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms
expected into the evening across higher terrain, with small hail and
gusts up to 40 mph. Transitory ridge of high pressure moves across
the region tonight and early Sunday with dry conditions expected.
Sunday should see a warm up of a few degrees under the influence of
the ridge, but the dry conditions are short-lived as the next system
arrives Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms return to the
western portions of the East Idaho fire district during the
afternoon, spreading across the remainder of the region through the
evening and overnight. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain forecast for most areas through the day Monday.
Monday should also be cool with daytime highs only in the 60s or
lower 70s for most lower elevation areas. By Tuesday, a new ridge of
high pressure sets up for a return to dry conditions through
Thursday.  Temperatures rapidly return to the mid 70s to lower 80s
for most of the region. The ridge begins to break down by the
weekend, with some moisture and potential showers and
thunderstorms returning as early as Friday.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion