Hubbard Lake, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

158
FXUS63 KAPX 130630
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
230 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few non-severe showers/storms today/tonight
- Warmer and drier weather ahead for early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Broad omega block pattern still hanging on over the US...with
elongated positively tilted trough axis over the western US...and
slightly positively tilted ridge axis over the central US...bounded
by a col region stretching largely W to E across central Canada...as
northern stream energy tries to fight for dominance to keep
troughing settled in across the eastern US/Midwest. In the
meantime...steep lapse rates and plentiful moisture (pwats at or
above 1") advecting into the northern Plains up the back of the
ridge axis...with continued southwesterly flow in the low/mid
levels. Warm front stretches from the Dakotas into the Mid MS
Valley...with warm advection convection along/ahead of this,
particularly across WI in the last hour or so, where theta-e
advection has become maximized along the front. Cold front draped
across eastern Canada to our north with aforementioned northern
stream energy...though a bit of PV slipping toward Lake Superior
helping some of that aforementioned warm advection convection
persist across the UP.
This subtle PV is expected to slip by to our east today...leaving
aforementioned warm front stuck to our west...likely keeping most of
the attendant activity to our west/southwest today, though a few
showers or rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out. Sharp ridge axis
then builds into the region late tonight...allowing for Hudson Bay
high pressure to ooze southward into the Great Lakes...likely
including our region.
Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:
Rain and storm chances today...Across our area today, expectation is
for primarily some scattered showers with perhaps a couple embedded
rumbles of thunder. Think the warm front and attendant convection
will end up staying largely to our south/southwest today, and thus,
keep the bulk of the forcing out of our area. Additionally, think
this is where the best moisture will end up as well, noting that
low/mid-levels may struggle to moisten up today, which could
preclude convection for us today (outside of mid-level warm
advection that could also limit upward motion). Still...not
impossible that a few showers or perhaps a rumble of thunder could
develop as far north as Manistee with better deformation than
expected...or perhaps develop across the eastern UP or northeast
Lower MI on the lake breeze. Additional showers could be possible
into tonight as the deformation axis remains in the area with
passage of shortwave to our east.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Days 2-3 (Sunday-Monday)...
Warmer and drier...
Ridge axis looks to hang out over our region Sunday...as a lobe of
energy lifts through the central Plains going into Monday/Monday
night. Broad expectation will be for a warm and generally quiet
period for our region...with highs starting to creep back upward
into the 80s to start the week. However...think we will have a shot
at showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder on Sunday...as we will
remain under the deformation axis with at least some moisture and
potential for a bit of instability...before things shift to our
west...thanks to high pressure centered to our northeast, likely
keeping a flow of dry air into the region from Canada. This dry air,
combined with warmer temperatures, could pose a fire weather risk,
as minimum afternoon RHs could begin to drop toward 30 percent early
next week.
Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday)...
Warm and dry trend continues...
Not impossible some of the energy riding over the ridge axis Monday
night/Tuesday tries to sneak in here...though for now, suspect the
bulk of this will remain well to our north, thanks to high
pressure/dry flow from Canada. Tail end of East Coast trough looks
like it may get cut off over the SE US, potentially setting up a Rex
block over the eastern half of the country. Think this could slow
eastward progression of longwave troughing trying to settle into the
central US later this week. This could leave us again in a realm of
generally benign but warm weather, assuming the ridge axis ends up
overhead...and how close upstream warm advection ends up to us...and
whether or not the potential Rex block will support dry, easterly
flow from Canada to keep moisture at bay. As mentioned for Days 2
and 3...think minimum afternoon RHs could become problematic for
fire weather concerns, if drying trends persist/continue into the
middle of the week while temperatures remain in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Some showers will cross the area overnight and Sunday. Best
chance for TSRA will be at MBL/TVC, and will amend those TAFs if
ongoing TSRA in eastern WI gets closer. Otherwise this will be
a mostly VFR event, with precip falling from a mid cloud deck.
However, at the very tail end of the new TAF, do reintroduce fog
to the MBL TAF late Saturday evening.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion