Hulls Cove, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

773
FXUS61 KCAR 060049
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
849 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east through Monday. A cold front crosses
the region later Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure builds
in Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
8 PM Update:
Updated wind gusts, minimum RH, and temperatures for Monday
afternoon after evaluating the fire weather situation and
forecast soundings. Temperatures warmed slightly more than
expected today which may translate to an extra degree or two
compared to the NBM for tomorrow with similar temperatures
around 925mb anticipated.
Previous Discussion:
A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere
will crest across the region tonight into Monday. At the same
time, surface high will continue to drift east into the open
waters of the western Atlantic. Subsidence associated with the
ridge will result in a mainly clear sky tonight. Some patchy fog
is possible late across downeast areas. Lows tonight will
generally range from the low to mid 50s.
Monday will be a mainly sunny and unseasonably warm day for early
October, as high pressure both at the surface and aloft moves east.
Southwest flow at the surface and aloft will result in record high
temperatures Monday afternoon across the region. Afternoon
highs are expected to reach the lower 80s throughout much of the
region away from the immediate coast.
Monday night will be mainly clear as high pressure continues to
move east in advance of an approaching upper trough and cold
front from Quebec. Lows will range from the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday: The low pressure system and the warm front will remain
well to the north bringing warm S flow to the region. Temps
could reach record highs for the day in the upper 70s to low
80s. With the cold front approaching from the W, pressure
gradients are squeezing between the exiting high and the front.
Thus winds should increase throughout the day, with gusty winds
along the coast. Extended models indicate the rain ahead of the
cold front should move in by late evening. In addition, models
are showing instability ahead of the front, which could produce
isolated thunderstorms across the north.
Tuesday night: The cold front should progress across the
region. As of the this update, QPF models show the majority of
rainfall moving through the region throughout the night. As the
front moves through, temps should drop into the 50s and wind
direction shifts from the NW.
Wednesday: The cold front should gradually exit to the E
throughout the day. The majority of rain is expected in the
south for the day and should dissipate by late afternoon. Temps
should be drastically cooler from Tuesdays high temps with upper
50s in the north and low 60s in the south. Breezy NNW winds
should continue with gradually clearing skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure is expected to dominate the region through the
rest of the week into the weekend. Expect mostly clear skies and
near normal temps. Thursday night could see temps dropping into
the upper 20s in the north and low 30s in the south.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through Monday. SW winds around 5 to 10 kt are
expected tonight, then 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
around 20 kt are likely at northern terminals during the
afternoon.
Monday Night Outlook...Mainly VFR with possible IFR late
KBGR/KBHB. S to SW wind.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in rain north.
SSW winds 5-15 kts
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain. SW winds becoming NW winds
5-10 kts.
Wednesday...VFR north. MVFR/IFR south in rain. NW winds 10-15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
Wed night-Fri...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
Monday night.
SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday into Tuesday
night for SW winds gusting over 25 kt. Seas will build to 4 to 5
ft Tuesday and 5 to 6 ft Tuesday night in response to the
southwesterly wind. Humid air over the cooler water may result
in some mist and fog into early Wednesday morning. Good vsby
should return Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions continue tonight through Monday with record
warmth. Minimum relative humidity around 25 to 40 percent is
expected Monday afternoon, along with wind gusts to around 25
mph across northern Maine, leading to elevated fire weather
conditions when combined with the recent dry weather.
A wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, with
rainfall totals of up to an inch is possible. South/southwest
wind gusts up to around 20 mph are expected Monday/Tuesday
afternoons. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a
return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly
winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Caribou set a record high temperature today, Sunday October 5th,
of 81 degrees. The previous record was 77 set in 1946 and 2005.
This is only the second October day reaching 80 degrees or
warmer during the period of record, which dates back to 1939.
The other day was October 9th, 2011, when the high temperature
was 82 degrees.
Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               74/1946        82
Bangor                84/1946        85
Millinocket           82/1946        85
Houlton               73/1957        83
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        78
Bangor                84/1946        78
Millinocket           81/1946        79
Houlton               76/2016        78
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/MWS
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...TWD/MWS/ARL
Marine...TWD/ARL
Fire Weather...
Climate...

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion