Hunter Army Air Field, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

107
FXUS62 KCHS 280022
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
822 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain stalled along the coast through the
weekend. Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to become a
tropical storm near the Bahamas this weekend then approach the
Southeast U.S. coast early next week as a tropical storm or
hurricane.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of a trough along the spine of
the Appalachians this evening, which slowly shifts to the east
overnight while weakening slightly. At the surface, a front is
slowly shifting east across inland zones locally. Southwest flow
ahead of this front is ushering deep moisture into the region, with
a plume of PWATs ranging from 1-5-2" across our area this evening.
The CAMs continue to have scattered showers across coastal areas
this evening, until fropa occurs with drier air in its wake (seen on
water vapor imagery). The front should be located near our coast
late evening, then offshore late tonight. Low temperatures are
forecasted to range from the mid 60s far inland to the low 70s along
the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weak front/inverted trough will be stalled just off the
SC/GA coast Sunday morning, then may drift onshore later in the
day. Onshore moisture flux will increase during the afternoon
with PWATs pushing above 2" in the afternoon. Temps are expected
to climb into the mid/upper 80s inland, with lower 80s near the
coast. The combination of a weak sea breeze and the coastal
trough plus the development of moderate SBCAPE in the afternoon
should allow for scattered showers and tstms to develop near the
coast and move inland later in the day.
Additional moisture advection Sunday night, plus a large area
of mid-level vorticity well ahead of TD 9, will rotate onshore,
bringing an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage. Some
heavy rainfall is possible, particularly around daybreak Monday
near the coast.
The forecast becomes much less certain Monday into Tuesday as
the details will depend heavily on the eventual track and
intensity of TD 9. The track forecast is particularly complex
because it will also be influenced by the eventual track and
strength of Hurricane Humberto farther to the east. There has
been a noticeable slower and eastward trend for the TD 9
forecast during the last 12-24 hours. The majority of both
deterministic and ensemble model members are now favoring a
sharp east turn around the time the system gets as far north as
the FL/GA border while still more than 100 miles offshore. Based
on this latest forecast, the local risk for damaging winds or
significant storm surge would be lower. However, a lot can still
change, and it`s worth noting that some ensemble members still
show a more northwest trajectory.
The threat for heavy rainfall across coastal SC and potentially
also in GA could exist even if the current forecast verifies
due to interaction between the developing TD 9 and inland
trough. Most guidance shows the greatest precipitation shield
north and northwest of the center Monday through Tuesday, with
the potential for 4-6" of rainfall over the SC quad-county area.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heavy rainfall could continue to be a concern for the eastern
half of the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday if TC 9
follows the current forecast track. Once TC 9 is hopefully out
of the way, cooler high pressure will build from the north,
though we can`t rule out scattered showers late in the week if a
weak surface trough redevelops.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers continue across the local area this evening, which
could impact the terminals during the next few hours and produce
TEMPO MVFR restrictions. At the time, CHS has the higher potential,
therefore a TEMPO group has been extended until 01Z Sunday. There
should be at least a few hours of VFR conditions at all terminals
late evening, but guidance suggests MVFR to possibly IFR cigs
developing across the terminals for a few hours around daybreak
Sunday. At this time, confidence is highest for flight restrictions
at CHS where MVFR cigs arrive by 06Z Sunday and TEMPO IFR cigs have
been introduced between 08-12Z Sunday. Conditions will be slow to
improve at all terminals after daybreak Sunday, with MVFR cigs
holding on at CHS/JZI terminals through 00Z Monday and the potential
for a few showers impacting the terminals between 21-24Z Sunday. At
SAV, VFR conditions occur for much of the day Sunday starting around
14Z, but MVFR conditions could occur in the 21Z-24Z Sunday timeframe
should showers develop across Southeast Georgia.
Extended Aviation Forecast: A prolonged period of gusty N to NE
winds possible Monday through Thursday due to interactions
between Tropical Cyclone Nine and inland high pressure. MVFR or
lower ceilings and occasionally vsby reductions expected for all
terminals starting as early as Sunday night and persisting for
much of the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will be just inland this evening, which should
slowly move eastward across the coastal waters late tonight,
becoming located just east of our waters by around daybreak Sunday.
This will cause light E winds in the evening to shift to the NNE
overnight. Seas will average 2-3 ft.
NE winds 10-15 kt expected Sunday, then the gradient really
starts to tighten Sunday night into Monday as Tropical Cyclone
Nine starts moving north out of the Bahamas and interacts with
high pressure over the eastern US. The forecast for the
remainder of the week will depend highly on the eventual track
and strength of the tropical cyclone. Mariners should closely
monitor the tropics and the local marine forecast as dangerous
conditions are anticipated next week. In addition to the strong
winds, numerous heavy bands of showers and tstms will affect the
waters.
Rip Currents: Increasing swells and winds will yield a High
Risk for rip currents on Monday. An enhanced risk will continue
through at least Wednesday.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...JRL

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion