Ida, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

453
FXUS63 KDTX 282242
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
642 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No significant weather nor precipitation expected through the next
seven days.
- Above normal temperatures retreat to more seasonable readings mid-
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure and deep layer subsidence will reside across the
region through the TAF period, sustaining light winds and clear
skies. There has been some inland push of moisture off Lake Erie
into the southern portions of metro Detroit. This will open the door
to a potential for brief visibility restrictions due to fog toward
daybreak at DTW and YIP. Farther north, the boundary layer has dried
out nicely per recent sfc dewpoints. This will support leaving fog
out of the forecast at the rest of the terminals.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Convection will not occur through the TAF
period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
DISCUSSION...
1023 mb surface high pressure translates across Lower Michigan this
evening before centering over the southern Ontario peninsula
tonight. A bit cooler through the overnight hours with post-frontal
drying keeping skies clear and dewpoints in check. This limits
overall coverage of shallow fog into Monday morning. Included a
Patchy Fog mention, from 08Z to 12Z to account for the possibility
of more aggressive nocturnal cooling across outlying areas. Light
and variable winds expected Monday as the surface ridge becomes more
diffuse, while ample sunshine helps boost diurnal heating to allow
for highs in the 80s. Configuration of the low-level anticyclonic
flow field lends potential for warmer air to spill into southern
Lower Michigan from the Upper Midwest Monday evening. 850 mb
temperatures likely climb into the upper teens (Celsius) overnight,
but then retreat into the lower teens on Tuesday as the ridge axis
over north-central Ontario absorbs the resident Midwest gyre,
modifying inbound local trajectories to a northerly alignment. This
marks the start of a mid-week cooldown with east-northeast flow
through the lowest 15 kft of the column and a tendency for
subsidence.
Prolonged stretch of dry weather persists on Wednesday as the
longwave ridge axis amplifies and drifts eastward over central
CONUS/Canada. This helps shield the Great Lakes from competing Mid-
Atlantic tropical systems which also get blocked by a deepening
northern stream trough over The Northeast. Ensemble data shows good
agreement that the coolest weekday temperatures to occur on
Wednesday and Thursday with highs around 70F, near climatological
normals. Cloud moisture appears rather lean through much of the
forecast timeframe, but low-amplitude shortwave perturbations aloft
offer periods of high cloud through the latter half of the week. The
composite ridge starts to shear out early next weekend with the next
dynamic Pacific wave. PoPs held AOB 10 percent through next weekend
in the absence of meaningful moisture advection and ascent.
MARINE...
High pressure drifts over the Great Lakes this evening, followed by
another high that builds into Ontario this week ensuring an extended
stretch of dry weather. Light and variable winds organize out of the
northeast Tuesday, with onshore gusts approaching 25 knots and waves
nearing 5 feet. Small Craft Advisories may be needed mid-week.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......MV
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion