Isle Of Wight, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

597
FXUS61 KAKQ 272005
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain continues across the area through this afternoon
before tapering off overnight. Tropical Depression Nine is expected
to become a hurricane as it tracks north off the Southeast coast
through Tuesday. While the center of the low is not expected to be
near the local area, rain from the system is expected to overspread
the local area Monday into Tuesday. However, uncertainity remains
high regarding rainfall totals given uncertainties regarding the
exact track of the system. High pressure builds in by late week with
cooler and drier weather likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- A Flood Watch remains in effect across the eastern half of the area
  today. Localized totals of 2-5" of rain in a short period of
  time are possible.
Afternoon surface analysis depicted an upper level low centered over
the deep south, allowing for favorable isentropic ascent overtop of
a stationary front located across far S VA. PW values this afternoon
were 1.9-2.1" across SE VA and NE NC. Given the favorable synoptic
ascent, widespread moderate to locally heavy showers continue across
the area. These showers have already prompted several Flash Flood
Warnings across south central VA earlier today and still pose the
risk of some isolated to scattered Flash Flooding, especially along
the stationary front where a focal point for convection is located.
A widespread swath of 1-3" (locally 3-5") has already fallen
(indicated by MRMS) generally along the I-95 corridor. As such, the
Flood Watch has been expanded W to include Brunswick County north to
Henrico County and NE across the Northern Neck as well as
Northampton County, VA where heavy rain was observed earlier this
morning. For the remainder of E/SE VA, the Flood Watch remains in
effect until midnight. While CAMs have had a poor handle on the
convection this morning, the 12z HREF continues to show a 30% chance
for 3" of rain in 3 hours across areas under the Flood Watch later
this afternoon into this evening. As such, additional flooding is
possible across the watch area through this evening. Rain tapers off
from SW to NE this evening into tonight, potentially lingering
across the Eastern Shore through tonight. WPC has expanded a Slight
ERO (excessive rainfall outlook) to include the entire FA, however,
the best chance for flooding remains across the flood watch area.
Otherwise, temps as of 3 PM ranged from around 70F across central VA
to the lower 80s across SE VA/NE NC. Afternoon highs today will only
be in the low-mid 70s across central VA with mid-upper 70s across
far S VA and the Eastern Shore and lower 80s across far SE VA/NE NC.
Lows tonight in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the
coast are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- A few isolated showers are possible Sunday across far SE VA/NE NC.
- Rain chances increase Monday into Tuesday as the outer rain
  bands from Tropical Depression Nine (expected to become
  Hurricane Imelda) overspread the region.
- Breezy NE winds are expected Tuesday, especially along the
  coast where gusts up to around 30 mph are possible.
Aloft, the upper level trough weakens Sun across the Southeast. At
the surface, the stationary front slowly moves south as a cold
front. As such, PoPs have decreased for Sun with only a slight
chance (15-20% PoPs) for a few isolated showers across far SE VA/NE
NC during the afternoon. Will note that a few light showers may
linger across the Eastern Shore early Sun morning. Otherwise, most
remain dry Sun under partly to mostly cloudy skies (highest cloud
cover SE and the most sun NW).
Tropical Depression Nine is expected to become Hurricane Imelda by
Tue morning as it moves N off the Southeast coast. Recent model
trends have been for a more western track which would take the
system closer to the FL coastline. However, most model guidance now
shows the system stalling off the GA/SC coast Tue before moving east
out to sea Wed into late week as a strong area of high pressure
begins to build into New England from Canada. As such, confidence in
locally heavy rainfall has decreased across the local area given how
far displaced the FA is from the center of the system. Nevertheless,
the outer rain bands from the system are still expected to move into
at least southern portions of the FA Mon into Tue (PoPs increase to
50-60% along and south of I-64 with 15-40% PoPs north of I-64).
Rainfall totals are currently forecast to be around 1-1.5" across
far S VA/NE NC with 0.5-1" across most of the area south of I-64.
However, given some lingering uncertainties regarding the exact
track of Tropical Depression Nine, WPC has maintained a marginal ERO
(excessive rainfall outlook) for southern portions of the area both
Mon and Tue. Locally heavy flooding and localized flooding continue
to be the main concerns.
Apart from the rain, the gradient winds increase well north of the
center of Tropical Depression Nine Tue. NE winds gusting to ~20 mph
inland across SE VA/NE NC and up to ~30 mph along the coast of
Virginia Beach and Currituck are possible. Otherwise, highs in the
mid-upper 70s (most in the upper 70s) Sun and Mon with low-mid 70s
Tue are expected. Lows remain above normal in the 60s each
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler, drier weather is expected by late week.
- Breezy conditions are expected Wed and Thu with gusts up to 40
  mph possible along the SE VA/NE NC coast.
The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine are expected to move east,
well offshore by late week. Meanwhile, a strong area of high
pressure builds SE into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. As such,
cooler, drier weather is expected. Highs in the lower 70s Wed, upper
60s Thu, upper 60s to lower 70s Fri, and lower 70s Sat are expected.
However, will note that while most model guidance takes the
remnants of Tropical Depression Nine out to sea, the
EURO stalls the system and takes the remnants back into the
Carolinas Sat behind the high. While this is a low possibility
with little ensemble support, it cannot be ruled out. Regardless
of the exact track of the low, the gradient winds increase Wed
into Thu given the pressure gradient between the high to the
north and low to the south. NE winds gusting up to 40 mph Wed
and 30-35 mph Thu are expected along the coast with gusts up to
20-25 mph possible inland. The gradient wind lingers through
late week across SE VA/NE NC with gusty winds possible along the
coast through Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...
Widespread showers continue to spread across the region this
afternoon with locally heavy rain and IFR VIS possible through
the afternoon into early this evening. Showers taper off from SW
to NE this evening into tonight. Will note that a few
thunderstorms are possible at ORF/ECG late this afternoon, but
otherwise, most of the convection should remain showers. CIGs
were mainly MVFR apart from some IFR inland. IFR CIGs are
possible at RIC between now and 21z, SBY from 22-00z, PHF ~3z,
and ~6z at ORF. Confidence is lower at ORF/ECG in IFR CIGs
tonight. As such, have kept CIG MVFR at ECG until 11z Sun, but
IFR CIGs are possible earlier. Additionally, patchy fog is
possible overnight. CIGs improve to MVFR by Sun afternoon.
Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs likely linger across the terminals Sun.
There is a low chance for a few showers across SE VA/NE NC Sun.
Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible through the week with
rain chances increasing Mon.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend.
- Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are likely next
  week, with the strongest winds expected Wednesday/Thursday.
- Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane
  Center regarding the progress of Humberto and Tropical
  Depression 9.
Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc boundary in place across SE
VA/NE NC, with somewhat elevated ENE winds ongoing to the north
of this feature (winds ~15kt). Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves 1-
2 ft.
Showers and storms eventually weaken as the front becomes a bit
more diffuse and then pushes SE of the region later tonight. A
modest surge of northerly winds is expected by Sunday morning,
but it appears too marginal for any SCAs in the Bay at this
time. Seas 2-3 ft, waves to around 2 ft.
Attention then turns to the progression of Tropical Depression
9, possibly soon to be Tropical Cyclone Imelda. There remains a
fair amount of spread amongst the deterministic and multi-
model ensembles regarding the handling of this system, though a
landfall over the coastal Carolinas is starting to appear
unlikely. The latest NHC track for Humberto shows the system
increasing speed NW and remaining well offshore, though in any
scenario, Humberto will send increasingly strong long- period
swell toward the local waters for much of the first half of next
week, which will build seas Monday through midweek. Strong high
pressure pushing SE across Quebec will lock in a prolonged
period of elevated NE winds and high surf across our area due to
the tightening pressure gradient and incoming strong E-SE
swell. NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday and Monday night with
seas increasing AOA 4-5ft. Winds and seas increase further Tues
into Wed with increasing potential for gale force gusts Wed
afternoon into early Thursday. The strongest winds are expected
over the SE VA/NE NC ocean zones, as well as the Currituck sound
and the mouth of the Bay. Seas are expected to build to 10-13
ft, with waves in the Bay 3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S (and 6-8 ft at
the mouth of the Bay). Winds gradually diminish by Friday, but
headlines for elevated seas are expected to continue into next
weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...
Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected
through Tuesday morning. After that, expect anomalies to increase as
strong high pressure slowly drops SE across Quebec, while Humberto
and Tropical Depression 9 (or its remnant), move farther offshore.
The tight pressure gradient will bring a prolonged period with strong
onshore flow, and a high likelihood of at least minor coastal flooding
late Wed through Friday (with the possibility for significant
coastal flooding).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ075>090-092-093-
     095>098-100-512>525.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion