Java Center, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

653
FXUS61 KBUF 251709
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
109 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move east of the area through Friday,
with showers gradually ending from west to east overnight through
Friday morning. High pressure will then build into the eastern Great
Lakes region Saturday and likely remain in place through most of
next week, with another long stretch of dry weather expected.
Temperatures will remain warm through early next week before cooler
weather arrives around the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A complex frontal zone stretching from New England to the Southeast
US will continue to move east and off the eastern seaboard through
Friday. Several baroclinic waves will continue to ripple northeast
along the boundary, with the final wave bringing some rain to
Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon.
Farther west, a few diurnal showers will develop this afternoon and
evening along subtle boundaries from lake influences and terrain.
Many of the high-res model runs suggest a band of showers developing
along the typical convergence zone between Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario breezes across the Niagara Frontier late this afternoon and
evening. If this materializes, it will locally enhance showers over
the Buffalo Metro area.
The mid level trough axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight
through Friday morning. Ascent from the trough coupled with
northwest upslope flow and modest lake instability will produce a
few scattered showers overnight through early Friday morning, mainly
southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and across higher terrain.
Most of the showers will end by mid to late morning Friday, with
another shower possible later in the day across the North Country
east of Watertown. Clouds will hold strong through Friday morning,
with increasing sunshine later in the day especially on the lake
plains.
Expect areas of fog to develop overnight through Friday morning,
especially across higher terrain where low stratus will intersect
the hilltops.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A building mid level ridge from the south, combined with surface
high pressure nearing our region from the north will end any showers
over the Adirondack foothills early Friday evening, with a good deal
of clearing to the skies allowing for temperatures to drop back into
the inland mid 40s to lake plain low to mid 50s by Saturday morning.
Moisture along the southeast coast Saturday morning will advance
northward, but another mid level trough from the Upper Great Lakes
will shunt this moisture eastward into New England the second half
of the weekend, with fair weather and overnight river valley fog
continuing for our region.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level ridge of high pressure will anchor over the Great Lakes
this period, keeping tropical moisture well to our south and
allowing for fair weather to continue through the period. A dry
frontal passage Tuesday night, with cold air advection Wednesday
will send temperatures briefly back to normal Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A wave of low pressure moving northeast along a frontal zone will
bring some rain to Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region
for a few hours this afternoon. Farther west, scattered showers will
continue across the western end of the state this afternoon and
evening. The rain will produce localized VSBY restrictions at
times. Areas of MVFR CIGS will also continue, with some IFR across
higher terrain and near Lake Ontario.
Tonight through Friday morning, a mid level trough will cross the
eastern Great Lakes and combine with northwest upslope flow and
modest lake instability to produce a few more scattered showers.
Widespread low stratus will also continue, and in fact expand and
lower overnight, with IFR CIGS becoming widespread late tonight
through Friday morning. The low stratus will intersect the hills
with areas of fog/mountain obscuration across higher terrain
overnight through Friday morning.
Any lingering scattered showers southeast of the lakes and across
higher terrain will end later Friday morning. Widespread IFR in low
stratus will gradually improve, with most areas returning to VFR by
mid to late afternoon.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday morning...Areas of IFR in fog.
Saturday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
West winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario tonight through Friday evening behind a departing cold
front, producing a light to moderate chop on the lakes.
High pressure will then build into the lower Great Lakes this
weekend, with light winds and flat wave action.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion