Jayton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

130
FXUS64 KLUB 211737
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon, mainly off
  the Caprock.
- Record breaking heat possible Monday.
- An upper level system to bring cooler and wetter conditions to
  the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The main focus for the short term forecast is the chances for
showers and thunderstorms mainly off the Caprock this afternoon. For
the upper levels, upper ridging currently set up over the Desert
Southwest and northern Mexico will flatten and expand eastward over
the region through the rest of today as upper troughing swings
through Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region and a secondary
trough strengthens behind the ridging, just off the coast of Baja
California. On the surface, a lee side low will continue to push
eastward through the Texas Panhandle. A dryline has currently
tracked eastward into our region from New Mexico. Current surface
observations indicate the dryline along the I-27 corridor where
winds have shifted to the west behind the boundary while winds
preceding the dryline remain from the south to southeast. Highs in
the 90s remains on track for much of the region as height and
thickness increases as the ridge expands overhead as well as surface
flow aids in increasing temperatures. The dryline is expected to
stall just off the Caprock this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible off the Caprock preceding the dryline with
dewpoints in the 60s and daytime heating. Models indicate isolated
to scattered thunderstorms could develop over southeastern counties
this afternoon, however are expected track southeast out of the CWA
by this evening. Conditions will dry out this evening as the upper
ridging continues to expand over the rest of the region. Severe
weather threat will be low, but a severe wind gust or two and some
small hail are possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Can
expect some localized heavy rainfall with the possibility of
flooding with PWATs up to 1.7 inches ahead of the dryline.
Should be a quiet and dry night as all precipitation is expected to
be out of the region by the evening. Winds will shift to the east
overnight pushing the dryline back toward New Mexico. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to 60s. Tomorrow is expected to be the
hottest day of the week with possible record break highs for some
areas. Height and thicknesses will increase due to the ridging
overhead effectively keeping conditions dry and increasing
temperatures Monday. Highs will be in the 90s for much of the
region, however some of the southeastern counties could see triple
digit highs. Surface flow will shift back to the south to southwest
by the afternoon also aiding with increasing temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The hot temperatures from the beginning of the week won`t last long
as the upper level pattern is expected to shift. The upper ridging
overhead will flatten further as an upper trough swings through the
Central Plains with southern portions clipping the Texas Panhandle.
An associated lee side low will simultaneously track through the
Central Plains with models in better agreement with the surface low
swinging a cold front through the region late Monday and early
Tuesday. Northerly winds and CAA following the front will cool
temperatures down across the CWA. A wide range of highs are expected
Tuesday with highs over northwestern counties in the lower 80s while
southeastern counties will see highs in the upper 90s. Lift
associated with the front will bring precipitation chances to the
region Tuesday afternoon and will continue through Wednesday as an
upper jet sets up over the region. Temperatures cool further
Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as models
indicate a secondary push of cooler air will track through the
region early Wednesday as well as mostly cloudy skies through the
day hindering daytime heating.
We will see the upper pattern shift again towards the end of the
week. Models indicate an omega blocking pattern will set up over
CONUS as the troughing over the Central Plains translates to eastern
CONUS and the upper troughing off the coast of Baja California
finally pushes on land over the Desert Southwest. Upper ridging
between the two systems will set up over our region, warming
temperatures and drying out conditions for the latter half of the
week. Another round of precipitation is possible this upcoming
weekend as models indicate the upper trough over the Desert
Southwest translates to our region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at KCDS but
chances and coverage are too low to mention in the TAF at the
moment. Low CIGS and visbys may work into the area from the north
early Monday morning but conditions are highly uncertain. The
highest chances of MVFR or IFR conditions will be at KCDS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion