Jensen Beach, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

610
FXUS62 KMLB 181906
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- A high risk of rip currents continues at St. Lucie and Martin
  county beaches tonight, with a moderate risk at Volusia,
  Brevard, and Indian River county beaches.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible each day
  through the forecast period.
- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal this week and
  into early next week, especially across the south, where higher
  coverage of clouds and rain are forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Current-Tonight...Isolated showers have developed this afternoon
across east central Florida, with storm activity holding off for
the time being. Short range guidance continues to favor isolated
to scattered activity given the moisture present across the
peninsula, but limited daytime heating will likely continue to be
an inhibiting factor for development through the remainder of
today. PoPs remain highest across portions of the Treasure Coast,
with confidence even in that waning as the afternoon pans out.
Storms cannot be completely ruled out, but confidence remains low.
Any storms that do manage to develop through the remainder of
today may be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds
to 45 mph, and brief heavy downpours. Minor localized flooding
will also be possible in any areas that see repeated rounds of
showers. Activity is forecast to diminish into the late evening
hours, with mostly dry conditions anticipated overnight across the
area. Further development of showers and storms will be possible
across the local Atlantic waters, and onshore flow may lead to
some onshore-moving activity along the immediate coast primarily
from the Cape southward. Lows fall into the low 70s areawide, with
skies gradually clearing out overnight.
Friday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast across the
Florida peninsula as one mid level trough pushes farther east out
across the Atlantic and another trough slowly drifts eastward
across northern portions of the central US towards the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop out
across the Atlantic waters, with a weak surface boundary
establishing itself across south Florida. Winds turn more
northeasterly Friday and persist through the weekend as a result
of this set-up , becoming breezy at times along the coast and
towards the greater Orlando area. This northeast flow will help
drier air filter in across northern portions of the forecast area,
with global model guidance finally coming into better agreement
about this solution. As a result, was able to lower PoPs slightly
to 20 to 50 percent across east central Florida through Sunday,
with the highest rain chances focused across the Treasure Coast
and near Lake Okeechobee. Isolated storms cannot be fully ruled
out with activity, but minimal instability will be a limiting
factor. If any storms do manage to develop, they may be capable of
producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief heavy
downpours. Confidence in this remains low through the weekend.
Shower and storm activity is anticipated to diminish into the
overnight hours, with lingering development possible across the
local Atlantic waters each night.
Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal through the
weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the
low to mid 70s. Mostly to partly clear skies are forecast across
east central Florida as a result of the drier air aloft.
Monday-Thursday (previous modified)...The aforementioned mid-
upper level trough near the Great Lakes will continue eastward as
a mid to upper level cutoff low develops across the Central US
into mid week. This will result in some weak mid level ridging
over the Florida peninsula by mid week. At the surface, the
boundary across South Florida will slowly shift northward near to
just south of the local area by early week and will meander there
through mid to late week, eventually washing out entirely.
Locally, northeast to east winds at 10-15 mph will persist through
the period with the east coast sea breeze forecast to form each
afternoon and enhance wind speeds, especially along the coast.
Global models continue to slightly disagree on moisture for next
week, so have continued to stick with NBM for rain chances (30-60
percent). Isolated to scattered daily storms are also forecast,
with lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours the
primary concerns. Any lingering activity is forecast to diminish
late each evening across the peninsula, with scattered showers and
storms remaining possible across the Atlantic waters overnight.
Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year as onshore
flow persist. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low
90s. Overnight lows wil continue to be low to mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Persistent east to northeast winds through this weekend and into
early next week will cause seas across the local Atlantic waters
to slowly build from 2 to 4 feet up to 3 to 5 feet. The 5 foot
seas are forecast to remain primarily across the offshore waters.
Wind speeds generally remain between 10 to 15 knots, but brief
periods of 15 to 20 knot winds across the local Atlantic waters
will be possible Friday and Saturday, especially in the afternoon
as the east coast sea breeze develops.
Model guidance has trended in a slightly drier direction through
the remainder of this week and into the weekend, resulting in
slightly lower rain and storm chances across the local Atlantic
waters (30-50 percent). Moisture is then forecast to increase
early next week once again, with PoPs returning to near normal at
40 to 60 percent. Confidence in storm development remains low, so
maintained a 30 to 50 percent chance of storms in the forecast
through the entire period. Any storms that manage to develop may
be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, heavy
downpours, and locally higher seas. Showers and storms are
anticipated to remain rather isolated to scattered through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Coverage of showers and isolated storms is forecast to increase
through the afternoon. VCSH included along the coast from TIX
southward and at LEE. There is a low chance for lightning across
the interior and have opted to keep a mention of VCTS at
MCO/ISM/SFB after 19Z. Showers and storms mostly diminish by 00Z.
However, isolated showers remain possible along the coast from
Cape Canaveral southward overnight and have kept VCSH for most
coastal terminals. East-northeast winds increase to around 10 kts
today, becoming light and variable tonight. Northeast winds
increase tomorrow with gusts around 20 kts across the north.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  86  74  86 /  20  20  20  30
MCO  73  89  73  89 /  20  30  10  30
MLB  74  87  76  87 /  40  40  30  40
VRB  73  87  75  88 /  40  40  40  40
LEE  71  89  72  89 /  10  20   0  20
SFB  72  88  73  88 /  10  30  10  30
ORL  73  89  74  89 /  20  30  10  30
FPR  73  87  73  88 /  40  40  30  50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion