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Jensen, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

587
FXUS65 KGJT 222205
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 405 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, with some additional showers overnight as the front works through.

- Snow levels drop to around 10000 feet tonight, with light accumulations expected for the northern mountains and trace amounts south of I-70.

- Temperatures average 10 degrees below climatology Tuesday.

- Drier air returns Wednesday with the next chances for precipitation possible next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Split flow across the CWA has introduced two distinct regimes today. A stacked low working across the Intermountain West is dragging a boundary through our northern counties, with numerous showers and thunderstorms from the Uinta Basin to the Park Range and southward to the Colorado River. Shallow moisture on the mid day sounding with some dry air at the mid levels has kept rain production minimal. A few gusty outflows to around 45 mph and some small hail remain a possibility this afternoon and evening as the front drags through.

Meanwhile, a low anchored off the SOCAL coast, is pushing a jet streak across the Four Corners. Jet forcing and a separate plume of moisture has kept some stratiform cloud cover across southern Colorado today. Cloud cover has kept convection from entering the conversation. Durango has yet to crack 60 degrees as of this writing, a much different regime beneath those clouds.

This evening, the stacked low is expected to drift south and east. This will introduce some additional cold air and more showers south of I-70. Snow levels stick around the 10,000 foot mark and above. Closer to the low along the high peaks of the Park Range and the Gores, a few inches of snow will accumulate. As far as pass level, Vail Pass is expected to see a rain/snow mix with some light accumulation on grassy surfaces, but little on the roads. Nonetheless, mountain travelers will want to keep abreast of weather conditions there tonight and early Tuesday. South of I-70, moisture and snow will taper, but a dusting on the peaks is expected, with not much to worry about at pass level there, as overnight lows barely get into the mid/upper 30`s. A heavily tilted trough and decaying frontal boundary stretching from the Four Corners to the Plains will stick around Tuesday. This should produce some additional showers and thunderstorms across the region through the day Tuesday before northwest flow scours the remaining moisture Tuesday night. Precipitation is expected to taper pretty quickly Tuesday evening, but a few showers will linger along the west edge of the Divide into Wednesday morning, with dry air taking over by daybreak. Temperatures will trend nearly 10 degrees below climatology on Tuesday afternoon, with morning lows Wednesday trending around 5 degrees under.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 344 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Dry air overtakes the region on Wednesday as the jet stream currently providing the moisture tap for the region moves southward. Conditions remain seasonable until a ridge builds in on Thursday providing enough warm air advection to lift temperatures into the low to mid 80s for the lower valleys.

The residence of dry air will be short lived, with an unsettled weather patter regaining control Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will hang over the southern half of the forecast area before spreading north into the weekend. Global ensembles hold onto this moisture well into next week. While there is a lot of time for things to change between now and then, one can expect the forecast to trend wetter and cooler this weekend after a warmer and drier second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Convection will increase in coverage after 18Z with more showers and thunderstorms expected. Almost all TAF sites have TEMPO PROB30 groups for these showers and storms through the day and into this evening and overnight. VFR will remain the predominant flight category but some MVFR/IFR can`t be ruled out as stronger storms and showers move over any TAF sites. ILS breakpoints may be met for the same reasons. Some breaks in cloud cover and precip will occur from time to time over the next 24 hours though this unsettled weather will also continues through tomorrow.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None. UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion

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