Johnson, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

499
FXUS64 KTSA 080533
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across northeast
   Oklahoma this evening into Tuesday.
- Mostly dry conditions are favored through the rest of the week.
- Temperatures warm back to near or slightly above average by mid
   to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Another mostly pleasant day is in store across the region today
under mostly clear skies. The surface ridge axis will begin to shift
eastward throughout the day and more breezy southerly winds will
develop across eastern Oklahoma by this afternoon. Temperatures are
again expected to top out in the low to mid 80s for most locations
this afternoon. The main player for any impactful weather for the
next week will move across the area from this afternoon through
Tuesday. A weak shortwave is progged to move into northern and
central Kansas in the northwest flow aloft this morning. Confidence
has increased amongst various guidance that a cluster of showers and
storms will develop over north-central Kansas by mid to late morning
and drift southeastward through the rest of the day. These storms
could approach portions of far northeast Oklahoma during the mid
afternoon to early evening hours, though likely in a weakening state
as the atmosphere remains fairly stable over the local region.
Moving into the evening and overnight hours, mid level moisture is
expected to increase into eastern Oklahoma, and additional shower or
storm development will be possible along a moist axis extending from
eastern Kansas through northeast Oklahoma into central Oklahoma and
along any outflow boundaries leftover form the afternoon draped
across the region. However, subsidence in the region from the
departing shortwave along with relatively modest PWAT values looks
to be a hindrance to more widespread precipitation in the area
overnight Monday. Convection looks to be favored further west of our
forecast area where better thermo profiles are in place and
northeast of the region closer to the influence of the mid level
wave. Still, some mention of scattered showers and storms will be
maintained during this period. Most guidance keeps QPF amounts
fairly light with the lacking moisture, with heaviest amounts around
a half an inch in any thunderstorms.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A few lingering showers could continue through Tuesday morning
across northeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, clearing skies and dry
conditions will lead to another nice day on Tuesday as highs remain
steady in the low to mid 80s. Moving into the middle and latter
parts of the week, mid level ridging is expected to take over the
Plains and warming temperatures are forecast into weekend. Many
locations will likely see a return to the 90s Thursday through
Saturday, with some isolated locations topping out in the mid 90s.
The forecast will remain dry through this period, though an isolated
shower or two will be possible each afternoon. Signals point to an
upper trough moving across the central CONUS the second half of the
weekend, aiding in breaking down the ridge and bringing at least
some low precip chances back into the mix by Sunday, along with
slightly cooling temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  61  83  63 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   82  57  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   81  57  82  58 /  10  20  10  10
FYV   81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   79  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   80  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   80  57  81  58 /  20  20   0   0
F10   81  57  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   80  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion