Karlstad, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS63 KFGF 261723
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance of thunderstorms in far northwest MN ahead of cold
  front this evening.
- Continued well above normal temps into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The frontal boundary is pushing eastward right now through North
Dakota, centered on a line around Williston. This will make it
to our area later this afternoon and evening, increasing winds
from the west, but hazardous wind gusts are not expected to
develop.
UPDATE
Issued at 937 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Clear skies continue this morning with no weather impacts
occurring through the remainder of the morning. Winds will
continue to increase from the southeast and increase our
temperatures fairly quickly through the day today.
UPDATE
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Skies are clear. High pressure has moved east so that all areas
now have a SSE wind developing. This is going as forecast so no
changes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...Synopsis...
High pressure centered near Baudette and International Falls at
08z. Calm conditions in this area allowing temps to drop into
the upper 30s and low 40s. High slides east quickly early this
morning with a southeast then south wind increasing thru the
today, first in eastern ND and the Red River valley. Strongest
wind gusts in the northeast ND and the northern Red River valley
with gusts 25-30 kts. Cold front from the west moves into DVL
region late afternoon and east thru the valley early evening and
into NW/WC MN late evening and overnight. A narrow ribbon of
instability does develop with MUCAPE values nearing 1000 j/kg in
far NW MN 00z in an area where 30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear exists
along with a narrow zone of dew pts in the 55-58 range. It looks
like a good chance for a band of t-storms to form 00z-03z into
far NW MN and eastern Manitoba ahead of the front moving into
Baudette area 03z-06z then exists. How far south precip chances
get is uncertain, but for now will stick where models indicate
850 mb moisture is higher which is mainly near and north of
Bemidji-Thief River Falls-Grafton ND.
Brief gusty WNW winds behind the front in E ND this evening,
then high pressure builds east later tonight into Saturday.
Sunny this weekend into early next week as 500 mb heights rise
ahead of likely upper trough moving into the west coast and
western Canada. GFS is the odd man out and does have a few
showers in a warm advection pattern Monday aftn along the Intl
Border. Warm Monday with highs 78-86 from north to south.
Rest of next week, shows low confidence due to model run
variability with overall ensemble consensus keeping a low chance
for precip mid to late week as area in SW flow aloft, but any
major 500 mb systems remain well west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period. A front will
push eastward later this afternoon shifting winds from
southeasterly to westerly/northwesterly. Gusts between 20-25
knots are possible behind this front. Showers and a few
thunderstorms may accompany this front, but the bulk of this
activity should remain well north of any TAF site. For this
reason, no PROB30 group was used for it. Low level wind shear
may develop overnight tonight around BJI as the front continues
to push eastward. This will improve after sunrise tomorrow
giving way to little impacts to aviation.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Perroux/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Perroux

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion