Keystone Islands, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

911
FXUS62 KMFL 260514
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
114 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Mainly clear skies and light winds over the interior early this
morning will set up favorable conditions for patchy to areas of fog
this morning. Hi-res guidance is picking up on this potential as
well. Most likely areas to be impacted are the typical locations
along Alligator Alley, along with interior SW FL and areas around
the lake. Will monitor this during the early morning hours to see if
any headlines will be needed.
Interesting set up the next couple of days with South FL sandwiched
between an upper level trough that will start to dig into the Gulf
today along with a frontal boundary that will approach the FL
panhandle by this evening, and AL94 which has a high chance of
becoming a tropical depression late tonight or early this weekend in
the vicinity of the central and NW Bahamas. Convection today will be
primarily diurnally and sea-breeze driven with scattered storms
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Forecast soundings
show PWAT values of roughly 1.9-2.1 inches across the region, and
with weak steering flows, some isolated urban and poor drainage
flooding will be possible across the metro. High temps will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Outside of a few coastal showers/storms
overnight, mostly dry conditions with low temps tonight in the lower
70s around the lake to mid and upper 70s over the rest of South FL.
The trough over the Gulf will start to lift to the NNE on Saturday
with an upper low trying to form over the SE US. Meanwhile the
frontal boundary will try to push southward towards around central
FL. At the same time, attention will need to be paid to the Bahamas
to see what happens with AL94. With the disturbance expected to be
in the vicinity of the Bahamas, expect the low level flow to take on
more of a northerly component on Saturday. Diurnally driven storms
are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the
highest PoPs being over the interior and western portions of the
east coast metro. High temps on Saturday will be in the lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
As we hit the end of the weekend and into early next week, the
frontal boundary will settle north of Lake Okeechobee before
eventually dissipating early to mid next week. Meanwhile, much of
the uncertainty regarding the forecast will depend on what happens
with AL94. If it develops, most ensemble members keep the center of
the system well away from the FL coast, with potentially just some
marine and beach hazards locally. However, until the system forms
and the models can get a handle on it, there will continue to be
plenty of uncertainty. For the time being, the long term forecast
won`t stray far from the NBM. Expect northerly flow on Sunday
becoming more WNW early next week as the disturbance potentially
approaches the SE US. Even without any direct impacts, diurnally
driven showers and storms will remain in the forecast each day
through the middle of next week.
Temperatures in the extended period will remain slightly above
normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low
temps ranging from the lower 70s around the lake to mid and upper
70s over the rest of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light and variable winds early this morning. Some fog is possible
this morning over inland South FL but is not expected to impact
the terminals. Winds become SE 5-10 kts this afternoon with a
westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Gentle south to southeast breeze over the Atlantic waters becoming
more northeasterly on Saturday. West to northwest breeze is expected
over the Gulf waters. Seas in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters 2 ft
or less through Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms possible which may
result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
A tropical wave may become a tropical depression late in the week or
over the weekend in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Depending on the
location of the system, hazardous winds and seas are possible late
in the weekend or early next week in the Atlantic waters. Pay close
attention to the forecast over the coming days.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Increasing swell due to a potential tropical system that may develop
in the vicinity of the Bahamas late this week or into the weekend
may result in an elevated risk of rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches late in the weekend into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  91  77 /  40  20  50  30
West Kendall     91  76  91  77 /  40  20  50  20
Opa-Locka        92  77  92  77 /  40  20  50  30
Homestead        90  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  77  90  77 /  40  30  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  91  77 /  50  20  40  30
Pembroke Pines   92  77  93  77 /  50  20  50  30
West Palm Beach  91  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
Boca Raton       91  76  91  77 /  50  30  40  30
Naples           90  76  91  77 /  20  10  30  10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion