Kitty Hawk, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

769
FXUS62 KMHX 111130
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
730 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to pull away to the northeast early this
morning as a stalled front drifts farther offshore. High
pressure builds in stronger today and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...Upper trough over the eastern CONUS
will slowly shift eastward today with sfc high pressure building
in from the northwest and the front that has been stalled off
the coast pushes farther offshore. Widespread stratus with
isolated light showers and drizzle continues across the region
this morning with abundant moisture trapped below the low level
inversion. Conditions gradually improve late morning and
afternoon with clouds lifting with some partial clearing
expected this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers
may continue through the afternoon as low level lapse rates
increase and a subtle 850mb trough slides south across the area,
but accumulations will be light. Temps will be a few degrees
below normal once again with highs in the upper 70s to around
80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...High pressure continues to build into
the area tonight and will continue to see clearing skies
overnight. Isolated showers may linger across southern sections
early evening but will end quickly. Lows expected in the low 60s
inland to mid to upper 60s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...
Key Messages
- High pressure leads to drier conditions inland through the
   weekend
- Coastal low pressure development possible mid-next week,
   impacts uncertain at this time
Friday into the weekend, high pressure brings dry conditions to
eastern NC. Aloft, a deep positively tilted trough moves through
the eastern seaboard this weekend. There are some indications
of a weak low forming along the stalled front/coastal trough off
the SE coast late this coming weekend into early next week
thanks to this upper trough. It is too soon to tell what
impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the
timing, track, and intensity of the low should it form. At the
minimum, winds should pick up a notch thanks to the tightened
pressure gradient. This results in a higher degree of
uncertainty for the forecast next week onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Thursday...
Key Messages
- Widespread IFR conditions through mid morning lifting to MVFR
   through mid afternoon.
Moist, cyclonic flow around departing low pressure will
continue to support stratus across rtes through much of the
day. Widespread IFR cigs continues at most terminals early this
morning which will continue into late morning, then lifting to
MVFR through mid afternoon, further lifting to VFR by late
afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible today but precip
amounts will be light. Pred VFR expected tonight. Nly winds
around 5-10 kt continues today.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Patchy fog is possible overnight into the
early morning hours through the weekend as clear skies and light
winds inland provide decent radiational cooling conditions.
Otherwise, VFR flight conditions expected through the long
term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...
Key Messages...
- Small Craft conditions continue north of Ocracoke Inlet
  through tonight for elevated seas.
High pressure builds in from the north through the short term
with the frontal boundary off the coast pushing farther
offshore. Northerly winds around 10-20 kt will persist through
the short term. Seas around 4-6 ft northern waters and 2-5 ft
southern waters. NWPS remains slightly underdone with waves
across the northern waters and followed closer to NBM in this
area which has seas dropping below 6 ft off the NRN OBX this
evening and across the central waters late tonight.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:
-Gusty northerly winds continue through the long term
-Small Craft Advisory conditions return for the weekend
-High uncertainty in the marine forecast for next week
Trough strengthens offshore this weekend, with pressure
gradient tightening as a high builds inland. This increases
winds to around 25 kts and seas to 5-7 ft, resulting in our next
chance of small craft advisory issuance. Early next week, a
weak low may form off the SE coast. This may result in another
round of gusty winds and high seas. However, there is a higher
than normal degree of uncertainty. Winds and waves are highly
dependent on strength, location, and track of low, should it
even develop. As a result, higher than normal level of
uncertainty with the magnitude of the winds at the end of the
long term period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 AM Thursday...
Higher than normal astronomical tides will continue to produce
elevated waters levels through most of the work week along the
coast and tidal waterways from Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City.
Depending on tide fluctuations, water levels will likely be 1 to
2 feet above ground level during periods of high tide. A coastal
flood advisory remains in effect for portions of the Eastern
North Carolina coastline for the higher tides.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ195-196-
     199.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion