Knoxville, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

252
FXUS64 KEWX 201134
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm conditions this weekend into next week
- Pattern uncertainty leading to low confidence in rain chances Tuesday
  through Thursday (currently 20-40%)
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Warm conditions continue through the weekend with the vast
majority of South Central Texas remaining dry. Very isolated
afternoon and evening showers are forecast mostly favored over
the eastern half of the area. Otherwise, skies will be mostly
sunny each day with light southeasterly wind, though an
occasional gust up to 20 mph may be seen at times.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Temperatures ramp up slightly Monday and Tuesday compared to
the weekend with widespread highs in the 90s Tuesday afternoon,
though a few locations could briefly see triple digit heat.
Models remain in disagreement on the exact placement of some
upper level features Tuesday through Thursday but generally an
upper level low will move across the Central Plains then remain
northeast of Texas through this time period. At the surface,
both the GFS and ECMWF now indicate a weak cold front moving
south into the area, though timing is the main discrepancy
between models. The front will be the main driver of any
precipitation chances across our area and could arrive sometime
between Tuesday night and Wednesday night and linger into
Thursday. Given the uncertainty in timing, lower NBM PoPs
generally from 20-40% seemed reasonable during the Tuesday to
Thursday timeframe for now. Behind the front temperatures cool
slightly closer to seasonable levels but remain warm through
late week. Some low rain chances are in the forecast beyond
Thursday but it`s too early to talk any details.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
All terminals are starting off VFR for this period. Low clouds are
moving northward from South Texas. We expect ceilings in the San
Antonio area for a few hours starting within the next hour or two,
but DRT and AUS should remain scattered. By late morning all
sites will be VFR for the afternoon and evening. Winds will
continue to be from the southeast at 5-10 kts for most of the
period. Sunday morning low clouds will be more widespread with
MVFR ceilings in Austin and San Antonio.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  72  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  71  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  70  92  72 /   0   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  71  94  72 /   0   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  71  94  71 /   0   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  70  96  72 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  71  94  72 /  10   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  73  94  74 /   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  74  97  75 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...05

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion