Lake Crest, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

177
FXUS63 KPAH 190434
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures near 90 continue through the
  weekend, followed by a return to more seasonable in the low to
  mid 80s early next week.
- Daily low rain chances begin on Friday and will continue
  through the weekend with isolated showers and storms.
- More impactful rain chances arrive next week and may begin to
  provide some drought relief.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Embedded impulses associated with a 500 mb trough over the northern
Plains will dig towards the FA on Friday, triggering a low risk
of isolated showers and storms mainly across portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Bumped up NBM PoPs in
the afternoon to account for the slightly wetter 12z CAMs that
also indicate uncertainty on placement. The RAP13 shows modest
instability and poor shear, but steep low-level lapse rates may
support a stray gusty storm.
Daily chances continue through the weekend, especially on Sunday as
a shortwave moves through. Energy over the northwest CONUS will
set the stage for a fairly unsettled week as a cut off 500 mb
low develops over the central CONUS by Wednesday. There remains
a large spread among model guidance regarding the evolution of
the synoptic details, but the general consensus is for shower
and storm chances to become more probable through the middle of
the week. The GFS remains more progressive and drier compared to
the ECMWF that holds the aformentioned low back in the vicinity
of the FA. Should the slower scenario be correct, more
impactful rainfall upwards of 1 to 2+ inches would be possible.
Regardless, increased rain chances along with cloud cover and
more seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 80s is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Patchy ground fog, mainly at CGI and other sites close to warm
water will be the only anticipated flight impediment overnight.
Prevailing VFR conditions still appear likely at most sites.
Light winds are anticipated during the day Friday with VFR
conditions. For the first time in quite some time scattered
showers or a thunderstorm or two may develop in the late
afternoon Friday persisting through the early evening, have
continued PROB30s at CGI/PAH/MVN but probability is a little
too low still further east.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion