Lake Itasca, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

801
FXUS63 KFGF 031454
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth today.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Saturday evening across parts of eastern North Dakota and far
  northwest Minnesota.
- Potential for widespread 1 inch or more of rain for parts of
  northeast North Dakota Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Cirrus clouds are streaming in from the west, bringing mostly
sunny skies that will continue through the rest of the day.
Updated grids with obs, otherwise no major updates needed at
this time.
UPDATE
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The fog patches around Bemidji and Park Rapids have moved out so
removed any fog. Satellite shows some high clouds and patches of
mid clouds. Likely rather similar thru the day. South winds
picking up and should be a very warm day once again. No change
ended to winds, sky or temps.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...Synopsis...
500 mb pattern shows center of upper ridge over Kansas and
Oklahoma and a 500 mb trough from Washington sate to central
California with center of a strong upper low just north of San
Francisco. T-storms noted with this upper low in California.
Spread of mostly high and mid level moisture ahead of upper
trough from Nevada into Montana and then spreading east thru
southern Manitoba and parts of NW Ontario. For today and
tonight...some embedded weak impulses at 500 mb will bring a
chance for showers or a few t-storms mainly north of the border.
Some slight chance for precip right along Canadian border,
mostly late evening and overnight Friday Langdon area to
Warroad. Otherwise dry conditions thru tonight across the fcst
area.
...Near record warmth today...
Forecast area in the warm sector today with 850 mb temps
expected to climb 2-3 degrees 12z Fri to 00z Sat. Winds will be
southerly but pressure gradient isnt terribly strong with sfc
winds more in the 15-25 mph range sustained with gusts 35 mph.
mixed layer winds 30 kts within the RRV, highest central RRV.
Highs today once again on high end of guidance and seeing such
850 and 925 mb temps warmer than on Thursday when highs at GFK
and Fargo were 88 and 87 respectively, dont see why highs would
not reach 90. There are some high cloud patches around, but
continuity based on the past few days says unless thick impact
on warming limited. Record highs for today are warmer than they
were Thursday....GFK the exception with record database from
1941 to current shows prev record high Friday 85 in 1976. Grand
Forks UND/NWS and Fargo well into the 90s from 1922.
...Marginal risk of severe storms Saturday evening and heavy
rain potential...
Saturday will be an interesting day, as much depends on frontal
movement, location. Soundings show a sufficient warm layer and a
few hundred CIN ahead of the front Saturday aftn in warm sector
and models, NBM used for forecast I do think correctly keep warm
sector dry thru 00z Sun. Main surface low develops from
northeast Colorado into central South Dakota Saturday and then
looks to move to near Fargo Saturday night and then toward
Baudette Sunday. With warm sector likely capped, initial shower
and t-storms likely right along or a 20-30 mile area west of
cold front in an area between 850 mb cold front and sfc cold
front where there will remain 500-800 j/kg MUCAPE and atmosphere
is not capped. It is this area where SPC did maintain a marginal
risk for a few storms that may approach severe limits Saturday
evening just behind front from far NW MN to south central ND.
But compared to 24 hours ago,  risk of severe does look less.
Deformation zone steady rain looks to set up Bismarck area thru
Devils Lake to southeast Manitoba into parts of NW Ontario.
Ensembles indicate GFS a bit farther west with max rain band
west of Bismarck to Rugby area, ECMWF a tad more east (with max
closer to GFK) and Canadian Global ensembles in between closer
to NBM.
Rain moves out late Sunday the cooler air moves in with gusty
northwest winds. As skies clear late Sunday night and more
likely Monday night and Tuesday night frost and freeze potential
increases as high pressure moves southeast from Saskatchewan
into the Red River valley Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR thru the pd. Main issue probably wind speeds this aftn into
the evening. Low level jet kicks in this evening so low level
wind shear present then in most areas and may last til late
tonight. Otherwise look for a south-southeast wind direction
with gusts 20 to 25 kts, locally higher, developing this
afternoon and unlike most times, winds holding up most of
tonight.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion