Lake View, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

460
FXUS62 KILM 011756
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
156 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto will push farther
offshore away from the Carolinas for the remainder of this
week. Mainly dry conditions are slated as strong Canadian high
pressure ridges in from the north, with isolated to widely
scattered showers from Friday through the weekend mostly towards
the coast. Treacherous marine and ocean conditions will persist
through the remainder of the work week with elevated waves
pounding the coastline.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For most of the period the area will have deep layer NE flow. In
the low levels these winds are being brought about by the large
high building in west of the Imelda circulation while in the
mid levels the cause in the southeastern periphery of and upper
ridge to our north/trough to our south. Forecast soundings do
show a strong inversion being maintained at 3kft which
especially tomorrow afternoon could serve as a base for very
scattered clouds. Tonight`s lows in the upper 50s will feel
cool-ish on account of how long a string of mild nights we`ve
had but these lows are right at climatology. Highs tomorrow will
be close to normal, just shy by perhaps 2 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The center of sfc high pressure slides off the coast to the
north this period, allowing a more onshore flow component to
develop in the wind field. Most areas will stay dry, however did
include a slight chance of showers near the coast as the axis
of driest deep-layer air shifts more inland and a few showers
could sneak in off of the coastal waters, but any rain is
expected to be light. Temps will be slightly below normal under
breezy NE flow...highs in the mid/upr 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall pattern is quite slow to change this weekend, as
aforementioned sfc high pressure continues to slowly slide
farther offshore, with weak upr-level ridging along the eastern
seaboard. The forecast will be characterized by a low chance
(20-30% PoPs) of rain each day mainly towards the coast in
association with moist onshore low-level flow, but a lot of dry
air persists in mid levels so see no reason to go higher with
these close to climo PoPs at this point. Seasonable temps
continue...highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s with lows ranging
through the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence this period. Wind will remain out of the
northeast and abate overnight with the loss of diurnal mixing.
With a large high building in from the north the speeds will
pick up again not long after sunrise Thursday. A strong
inversion at 3kft could trap a few clouds but their coverage
will remain low and cigs not expected.
Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR. May have some patchy fog over the
weekend with rain chances returning at the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Thursday... Fairly steady-state Small Craft Advisory for
the near term. Large high pressure building in from the north
will keep the gradient tightened across the area even as Imelda
races away from the U.S. Imelda`s 12 second swell can be seen in
spectral plots but the 5=7 second wind chop will continue to be
the highest power peak.
Thursday Night through Monday...Hazardous marine conditions
continue due to both lingering swells from Imelda and the
remnants of Humberto, and sfc high pressure building in from the
north. A SCA remains in place through Friday night, with gusts
up to 25-30 kt and 5-8 ft seas Thursday night falling to 4-6 ft
by Friday night. Thereafter, the sfc high will continue to
affect the local waters with moderate NE flow and seas close to
6 ft, so the SCA may need to be extended out in time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
all beaches today, with this high rip risk likely to continue
for east-facing beaches through the end of the week. Imelda and
remnants of Humberto swell will intertwine along with the
addition of large short period wind waves resulting from strong
NE winds as synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from
the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through
the end of the work week while the 2 tropical cyclone
distinctive swell trains slowly subside. The end result will be
the production of high surf (breaking wave heights up to 6 ft)
through Thursday for beaches north of Cape Fear.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MAS/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion