Lakeview, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS63 KIWX 201921
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
321 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wet period is ahead this entire upcoming week with numerous
chances for showers.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible most days.
- The best chance for marginally severe storms is Sunday with
  strong to possibly damaging winds the greatest threat.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Scattered showers and an occasional isolated thunderstorm were
occurring west of Highway 31 and mainly west of a line from Eau
Claire to SBN to Monticello. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-2
inches had fallen earlier with showers and storms. The latest
HRRR indicates more activity should redevelop tonight after 01Z
(9pm EDT) west of Interstate 69. Severe weather is not expected
but locally heavy rainfall is possible.
The SPC has the entire forecast area in a Marginal severe storm
risk Sunday. More energy from the upper level trof should reach
northern Indiana and be accompanied by unidirectional flow at 20
to 30 knots with CAPE values < 800 J/Kg. The best chances for
any strong to severe storms favor 3pm EDT to 11pm EDT. Strong
to possibly damaging winds are the greatest threat.
A very active pattern is setting up that will persist through the
upcoming week. A negatively tilted upper level trof had developed
over the forecast area as energy from the Pacific had topped the
upstream ridge. Numerous impulses of energy throughout this upcoming
week will bring showers and scattered storms as this pattern
persists.  The latest WPC forecast indicates over 3 inches of rain
are expected through Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated convection remains just west of KSBN near a north to
south oriented moisture/instability axis. Chance for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms do increase mid afternoon
through early evening at KSBN as this warm front gets a push
east in advance of an approaching Mid MS Valley upper trough.
Conditions will remain VFR outside of any thunderstorms which
could bring brief restrictions. KFWA more removed from better
moisture transport/forcing with lower confidence in shower/storm
coverage late this afternoon and evening. Opted to hold with a
Prob30 group for now as a result.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Steinwedel

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion