Lastrup, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

980
FXUS63 KMPX 210642
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
142 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for storms today and again Sunday afternoon. The risk
  for severe weather is very low.
- Next week, drying out with above normal temperatures of highs
  the mid 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Today through Sunday...
Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs showed mostly
cloudy skies and light winds across the region. Water Vapor
imagery showed a circulation across southern Minnesota, with
another one upstream over the Dakotas.
These circulations will be the main driver in the weather over
the next 48 hours, brining scattered thunderstorms across the
Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show less instability today
compared to Friday, which translates to less coverage in storms
this afternoon/evening, and a lower risk for heavy rain.
On Sunday, the southern circulation will move east and be
replaced by the one that is currently over the Dakotas.
Forecast soundings show more instability across southern
Minnesota as compared to today, so should see a bit more
coverage in the storms tomorrow, and a chance for some small
hail or pockets of heavy rain.
Monday through Friday...
Looking ahead, the main upper level trough currently bringing
clouds and rain chances across the region will take on a more
positive tilt and get sheared out Monday through Tuesday as an
upper level wave crashes upstream. This will lead to decreasing
chances for rain each day to start the week, but can`t
completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm.
By Wednesday, confidence in dry weather increases as the upper
level subsidence should overcome any diurnal heating showers,
leading to a flat cumulus field and more sun than clouds. Expect
dry weather to continue the rest of the week, with light winds
and mostly sunny skies heading into the weekend. Temperatures
will run above normal for late September, with highs in the mid
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
BKN/OVC coverage throughout this duration with mainly VFR decks
though the occasional MVFR/IFR level is possible prior to and
leading up to sunrise. Very sparse precipitation at
initialization, possibly enough to produce a trace, is evident
on KMPX radar mainly east of MSP but have kept the TAFs dry to
start. Best chance for any precipitation looks to come mid-to-
late afternoon for isolated SHRA/TSRA. Though TS cannot be ruled
out, have held mention at SHRA for now due to low chances and
very isolated nature of any possible TS and will let radar
trends and the upcoming KMPX RAOB dictate the need to re-
introduce TS in later TAFs. Model trends do indicate another
round of MVFR ceilings late Sunday night into Monday morning,
possibly fog should enough rain develop, so have introduced that
trend at the tail end of the TAFs.
KMSP...VFR conditions mainly expected throughout this duration,
with the best timing of precip looking to be early-mid evening.
Not expecting TS at this point, but it is a non-zero chance so
there is the chance it could be added to later TAFs.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE-WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU-FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion