571 FXUS62 KTBW 211443 AFDTBWArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1043 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
NE flow with drier air still in place today. A couple of showers/storms possible mainly across the south later this afternoon. Moisture overspreads the area tomorrow and Tuesday as some upper shortwave energy moves over the peninsula. This feature shifts east Wed/Thurs. A cold front then approaches the area for the end of the week and settles across the area Saturday. Rain chances will generally be in the scattered range for much of the rest of the week, with some numerous chances south Mon/Tues. Current forecast is on track with highs reaching into the lower 90s. Have no updates planned.
&&
.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
NE/E flow will become more NNE along the coast in the afternoon, then lighten and turn back to the NE overnight. A stray shower is possible mainly south, but chances are too low to include in the TAF. VFR will prevail through the period.
&&
.MARINE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Current forecast is on track with NE flow AOB 15 knots. NE/E flow will be in place through much the week, then a cold front settles into the area for the end of the week and into the weekend before stalling. Low rain chances today becomes more scattered through the rest of the week as moisture returns tomorrow. Little change for the update.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 76 91 76 / 10 10 30 10 FMY 92 75 90 75 / 30 20 60 30 GIF 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 40 10 SRQ 92 74 90 74 / 10 20 40 20 BKV 92 70 91 71 / 10 0 30 10 SPG 90 76 89 76 / 10 10 30 10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion