Lennep, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

990
FXUS65 KTFX 162128
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
328 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger through this
   evening across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
- It will warm up and dry out Wednesday through Saturday with
   windy conditions on Sunday.
- Shower chances return on Sunday to Southwestern Montana.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
- Meteorological Overview:
This afternoon the upper-level trough is over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring showers and
isolated thunderstorms to North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana with about seasonal averages for temperatures this
afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms will move out of North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana by this evening.
Wednesday morning in locations that receive rainfall today fog
will form. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios section for
details. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring dry
weather with temperatures warming up across the area. On Thursday
the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central and
Southwestern Montana which will keep the dry and warm weather for
the area on Thursday.
On Friday there is a quick moving upper-level shortwave trough that
moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
However, it will remain warm and mostly dry across the area. On
Saturday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana which will keep warm and dry weather for the
area. On Sunday an upper-level trough associated with a surface cold
front will move through North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will bring shower chances to Southwestern Montana with
windy and cooler conditons for North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. The strongest winds will be along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains. -IG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is at least a 10 - 30% chance for fog Wednesday morning across
most of Southwestern Montana. On Sunday there is a 20 - 40% chance
for wind gusts of 55 mph along the plains adjacent to the Rocky
Mountain Front. On Sunday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a
60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Sunday
across North-central Montana there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind
gusts of 45 mph or greater. -IG
&&
.AVIATION...
16/18Z TAF Period
MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail through 16/18z to 17/03z as a
slow moving disturbance gradually pulls away from the Northern
Rockies, with VFR conditions expected thereafter as precipitation
decreases from northwest to southeast across North Central through
Southwest Montana. Scattered to numerous showers, with isolated
thunderstorms, will be most common south and east of a KEKS, to
KGTF, to KHLN, to KWYS line through the morning and afternoon
hours today. Mountains will be obscured through the evening hours
tonight. Should cloud cover manage to clear out at any of the
terminals that receive rain, fog will be a concern tonight into
early tomorrow morning.   - Moldan/thor
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  77  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  44  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  77  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  42  72  42  77 /  30   0   0   0
WYS  31  67  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  39  70  40  76 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  47  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  72  45  74 /  40   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion