Leonard, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

660
FXUS63 KFGF 290902
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low over
  the next 7 days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...Synopsis...
500 mb high center (591 dm) is over northwest Illinois this
early morning and is forecast to remain in that vicinity thru
mid week. 500 mb trough will continue to push east gradually
into Washington state and British Columbia the next few days
with 500 mb heights building gradually northward into Manitoba
and NW Ontario. This puts the forecast area in a south-southwest
flow aloft. It does appear any deeper moisture is cutoff from
the flow aloft from New Mexico to Colorado and then into North
Dakota, except for some areas of mid level moisture and mid
clouds. Models, esp the GFS, for days have indicated at least
some low chance for a few showers (thunder?) in far northern
fcst area this aftn/eve.... NBM kept pops sub 15 but did feel
enough confidence as it is picked up on other models to go a
mentionable pop and a slight chc of showers along the Canadian
border mid afternoon into the evening from Langdon to Roseau.
Coord with BIS. Coord with DLH and added a low pop 05z-12z Tue p
period in Lake of the Woods as this is the favored area for some
mid level showers, maybe a thunderstorm. SPC has general thunder
in our area, but MUCAPES 500 j/kg or so is pretty weak.
At the surface today there is a weak front and cooler air that
will settle over the northern fcst area today, with highs today
in northeast ND and far northwest MN more in the 70s vs 80s we
saw Sunday. But very warm temps south with 850/925 mb temps a
degree or two warmer this aftn in SE ND and west central MN
where upper 80s are likely. For climate stations such as Fargo
these temps are shy of record values (which for Fargo is 96 in
1897). Overall today, will not see as low RH values as we saw
Sunday, with a mainly light east-northeast wind northeast ND and
northwest MN and a southeast wind in SE ND/WC MN. Speeds do look
to be 5-15 mph. Lowest RH progs using a bit lower dew pts than
strict NBM had does show some mid 30s RH values in warmer
airmass in SE ND into MN. Thus at this time no near critical
fire wx conditions will be advertised.
Warmer air will spread back north Tuesday and last into Thursday
with highs in the 80s. This is due to low pressure that will
develop in central Alberta and move into northern Saskatchean
Tuesday. Once again some hints at low precip chances Tues night
or Wed northern areas, where more mid level moisture will be
located.
Friday afternoon into the weekend precipitation chances do
increase tied to a short wave moving east into Saskatchewan and
Montana and potential 500 mb low that may develop over the
central Rockies with a pool of moisture northeast into parts of
eastern ND and MN. Something to watch...at this time precip
amounts and t-storm potential dont look impactful.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period due to very
dry air in place across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is a
weak upper wave in SW flow that will bring increasing high
clouds (20-25kft AGL). Surface low pressure is shifting east,
with generally weaker gradient near the surface trough resulting
in wind generally remaining less than 12kt through the TAF
period. Winds shift from the south-southeast to more of an
easterly direction as this boundary moves into northeast ND.
Gradient does increase more towards north central MN with east-
northeast winds 11-13kt expected Monday afternoon and evening at
KDVL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion