Limehouse, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

008
FXUS62 KCHS 051810
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
210 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across our area through Saturday. A
cold front will move through from the northwest late Sunday,
then stall offshore through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rest of the afternoon and tonight: Satellite imagery shows the
cumulus field gradually developing as we warm into the upper 80s
and low 90s. Hi-res model solutions continue to suggest that
isolated convection could occur across our far inland tier late
this afternoon and early this evening. Even if this were to
occur it should be weak and short-lived. Overnight, the forecast
area will remain within a weakly forced area situated between a
weak surface wave offshore and a cold front entering the OH and
TN valley areas. The only real forecast issue overnight is the
potential for some fog. Low-level moisture has been gradually
building for the last few days and with mostly clear skies and
calm winds conditions could become supportive for the
development of a bit of fog. So far no model guidance suggests
anything too widespread or significant visibility reductions,
but at least some shallow ground fog will be possible late
tonight. Lows are forecast to be a bit warmer, with mostly upper
60s away from the coast and low 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: A cold front will approach the forecast area from the
west through the day. Given the front remaining west of the
area through the daylight hours, high temperatures are forecast
to range in the low to mid 90s across SE GA/SC. Forecast
soundings indicates that a strong inversion centered at H7 will
remain across the CWA, capping the environment. The forecast
will feature dry weather. It is interesting to note on the
visible satellite a thick plume of wildfire smoke along and west
of the southern Appalachians, just west of the cold front as of
Friday afternoon. HRRR Smoke guidance indicates that the plume
may shift east following the front on Saturday, however, higher
concentrations of the smoke should remain north and west of the
forecast area on Saturday.
Sunday: Short term guidance indicates that the cold front will
push south and east across the forecast area during the daylight
hours. Potentially, the front could push across the region
during the morning. However, the NAM and ECMWF indicates that
the cold front may not arrive until the afternoon, possibly
interacting with a sea breeze. Models indicate that a least weak
instability will develop across the region, given afternoon
temperatures in upper 80s to low 90s. PoPs will peak during the
afternoon with values between 30-40 percent for showers and
thunderstorms.
Monday: The forecast area will remain under a sfc ridge,
centered over the western Carolinas, as the cold front remain
just offshore. Dry and stable air should gradually build across
the inland areas through the day. However, lingering moisture
and instability may remain over the coastal areas, supporting at
least a SCHC of convection. High temperatures should range in
the 80s, limited by gusty northeast winds and persistent cloud
cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The sfc pattern across the forecast area should feature a wedge
of high pressure inland with broad low pressure over the
nearshore waters. Confidence in the day to day weather is low.
The ECMWF shows a rather dry pattern, dominated by stable high
pressure. However, the GFS is much more unsettled, showing a
coastal low or trough shifting inland during the early to middle
of next week. The forecast will indicate SCHC to CHC PoPs each
day, favoring the coast. Temperatures should peak each afternoon
in the 80s, remaining slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Saturday. We will have to watch for some potential
fog development around sunrise Saturday. Model guidance does not
suggest anything significant, but there could at least be some
shallow ground fog. KSAV seems to stand the best chance of
seeing a short period of MVFR fog, and we have added a TEMPO
group to account for this. At KCHS and KJZI we have kept the
forecast VFR but do mention shallow ground fog.
Extended Aviation Forecast: There is a low chance for some
morning fog and stratus Sunday morning, mostly inland. The next
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday afternoon,
perhaps persisting into Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Ceiling
restrictions are possible Sunday night and Monday, as a front
sags into the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight: Very quiet conditions will continue. Wind
speeds will drop off to be 5 knots or less late tonight with
seas averaging around 2 feet.
Saturday - Saturday Night: The marine zones will remain east of
a front approaching from the west. Conditions across the
coastal waters will remain from the ESE between 5 to 10 kt. Seas
will remain between 2 to 3 ft.
A cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday, then
move across the waters by Sunday night. Northeast winds will
strengthen early Monday, persisting into late Tuesday. Small
Craft Advisories will be needed for all of our ocean waters
during this time period for winds and seas, and perhaps for the
Charleston Harbor due to winds. Conditions should improve on
Wednesday, with winds and seas trending lower.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will continue to increase through the
weekend, getting as high as 6.4 ft MLLW by the Sunday evening
high tide cycle within the Charleston Harbor. However, winds
will not be particularly favorable for large tidal departures
during this time period but observed peak tides could still top
out around 7 ft MLLW at Charleston each evening through Sunday.
Astronomical tide levels will remain high through the middle of
next week, given a full moon (9/7) and lunar perigee (9/10). A
notable surge of northeast flow along the coast is expected to
produce increased tidal departures through at least the middle
of next week which will result in an increasing probability of
minor to moderate coastal flooding along portions of the SC
coast. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the lower SC and
GA coast beginning Monday evening.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...BSH/NED
MARINE...BSH/NED

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion