Lincolnton, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

174
FXUS62 KCAE 011804
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather expected through the rest of the week as
northeasterly flow strengthens. Rain chances increase again
Sunday and into early next week as moisture increases.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Breezy winds as drier air moves into the region
- Cooler tonight with below normal temperatures
This afternoon: Satellite imagery shows clouds continuing to
dissipate across the region as the upper trough axis shifts
south of the forecast area. Plenty of sunshine has been
offsetting a bit of cool advection as temperatures rise through
the 70s into the lower 80s en route to max temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Breezy northeasterly winds continue
through sunset with some gusts over 20 mph into late afternoon.
Tonight: Strong high pressure builds into New England and will
ridge down east of the mountains into the Carolinas driving a
dry front through the region. Northeasterly winds will persist
and should stay up a bit overnight due to a low level jet with
cold advection occurring. Expecting overnight lows to drop well
into the 50s across the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cool/dry weather each day with some breezy winds during the
  day.
Upper ridging begins to fill in behind the upper trough
Thursday before fully establishing itself in the region on
Friday. At the surface, strong high pressure (around 2 standard
deviations above normal) centered toward New England initially
will ridge down into the Carolinas through the short term. This
set up with fairly uniform flow out of the northeast will usher
in cooler and drier conditions each day with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. The deterministic NBM is toward the 75th percentile
and with this cooler/drier airmass moving in, I think this
solution may be a bit optimistic and believe temperatures should
trend more toward the mid 70s. Forecast soundings depict a LLJ
into the morning hours each day and thus when the inversion
breaks some gusts toward 20-25 mph will be possible. REFS
probabilities for gusts greater than 25 mph is generally around
40-50% late Thursday morning before dropping dramatically into
the afternoon with the loss of the LLJ. Winds should remain
elevated each night but cold advection will allow some of the
cool overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 50s Thursday
night and in the mid to upper 50s Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances increase to end the weekend and through the
  early week.
- Temperatures gradually return toward seasonal values.
The forecast into the extended period largely remains on track
as both deterministic and ensemble global models depict upper
ridging/surface high pressure that begins to slide off the East
Coast over the weekend, slowly allowing moisture to return to
the area with flow becoming more easterly to southeasterly. This
should also bring temperatures that are closer to average by
Sunday. PWAT`s are progged to reach toward 150-160% of normal
Sunday and into the early week, and shortwave energy around the
weakening ridge should increase rain chances starting Sunday and
continuing into Tuesday. This pattern largely continues into
the mid week, though there is some hint that a cold front may
start to near the region, possibly bringing continued rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24hr forecast
period.
Upper level trough axis will shift south of the region tonight
and a reinforcing dry front will push south through the area.
This will keep the northeasterly winds up supported by a 30 knot
low level jet. Fog concerns are therefore limited as well with
continued boundary layer mixing expected. Winds should be in the
5 to 10 knot range overnight then pick back up to around 10
knots with gusts to 20 knots again after 14z-15z. Cloud cover
should be limited to mainly some scattered higher clouds.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...As moisture returns to the region
this weekend we will see rain chances and the chance for
restrictions increase.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion