954 FXUS64 KAMA 222319 AFDAMAArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 619 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Precipitation chances return today with potential to see severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards, primarily in the northeastern combined Panhandles.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours with chances showers to follow Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Drier weather looks to close the work week out with a low chances of more storms to follow Sunday.
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.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
As of this writing, GOES water vapor imagery shows the first signs of the expected upper level trough digging down into the northeastern portion of the Great Basin Region and the northern Rockies at this time. This trough is progged to continue to dig and swing into WY/CO developing a closed low tonight, sending the first push of CAA, knocking temperatures down to near normal tomorrow. For today, this system will send ripples through quasi- zonal flow aloft this evening. It will also increase H5 winds as well as mid to upper level moisture. However, at the lower levels and the surface, a surface trough is expected to bring in dry air. A line of showers and maybe a rogue thunder is expected to move into the combined Panhandles from the west this evening. With the lack of instability (
NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion