Lockport, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

284
FXUS64 KLIX 241747
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
KEY MESSAGES...
 - Much-needed rain returns over the next 48 hours ahead of a cold
front.
- Strong to a few severe storms possible this afternoon and this
evening.
- Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon and this evening.
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
We`re seeing bubbly showers and a few thunderstorms across the area
early this afternoon. Coverage of storms will continue to increase
over the next few hours as moisture continues to pool into the area.
You can see just how moist we are by looking at the current surface
dew point obs which are sitting in the mid 70s for the entire CWA.
Heading further into the afternoon hours we will see better
instability which will aid in thunderstorm development. A few of
these could be on the strong to severe side as the environment
becomes more favorable, though these look to be more isolated
rather than organized. Given the amount of moisture we have in
place, pockets of locally heavy rainfall are also on the table.
It looks likely that we will have a lull in the rain for a couple or
few hours this evening and towards overnight. We`ll see showers and
storms re-fire sometime overnight into Thursday morning and hang
around through at least mid day. Things look to hang around longer
closer to the coast and we likely do not completely dry out until
sometime on Friday.
The actual cold front itself looks to arrive later in the day on
Thursday, making it out to the coastal waters sometime on Friday.
This will bring some cooler minimum temperatures heading into
Thursday night, down into the mid 60s to lower 70s which is a good 5
degrees cooler than Wednesday night. Additionally even though the
front will likely not be through yet, afternoon highs on Thursday
will also be a few degrees cooler due to the rain hanging around.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Heading into Friday we should see out cold front make its way
through the entire area, bringing much drier and slightly cooler air
behind it. We see this well in the dew points dropping into the mid
60s and the RH values dropping back into the 40s and 50s. Rain may
stick around along the coast early in the day, but we are expected
to dry out on land fully by the afternoon. By Saturday we see
temperatures across the entire area down to climate normals, even a
couple degrees below normals for this time of year. MinT`s Saturday
morning will be in the low to mid 60s across the Northshore and
Coastal Mississippi and in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the
Southshore. Afternoon highs through the weekend will be pretty much
right at climate averages. High pressure quickly builds into the
area behind the cold front, with ridging in the upper levels.
Looking further into the long term, early next week, low
temperatures look to remain similar to the weekend values while the
highs may rise a degree or two. No rain on the horizon through the
remainder of the forecast period as high pressure holds over the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions for the most part at terminals right now, but as
we continue through the afternoon and evening we will start to see
more widespread convection form. All terminals likely see some
sort of convection over the next 24 hours which will bring
ceiling and vis issues. TSRA in all TAFs with MVFR to IFR
conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A cold front will continue to gradually move southeastward over the
next couple days. Expect better chances for thunderstorms on
Thursday ahead of the front, which could bring locally highers winds
and waves. The front will approach the coastal waters overnight
Thursday night and into the coastal waters late Friday morning.
Light onshore flow will continue through today but winds will become
more chaotic as storms begin to move into the coastal waters ahead
of the front overnight tonight and through the day Thursday. Once
the front finally moves completely through the coastal waters late
Friday light offshore flow will develop temporarily.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  83  64  84 /  80  50  10  10
BTR  72  85  66  86 /  80  50  10  10
ASD  72  84  66  86 /  60  80  30  20
MSY  75  86  72  88 /  50  70  30  10
GPT  74  86  69  86 /  50  80  40  20
PQL  72  86  67  87 /  50  80  50  30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion