Longworth, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

097
FXUS64 KSJT 212026
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
326 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with a
  slight risk for severe storms along and north of I-20.
- Temperatures trend hotter today into Monday, then should be
  cooler by the middle of next week, along with additional
  precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Hot and fairly humid air over the region with dew points into the
upper 60s throughout the CWA. CAMs continue to indicate shortwave
moving through the WNW flow aloft with storms popping up in the
21-22Z time frame, mainly north of I-20. SPC has upgraded this
area to a slight risk and this looks reasonable with plenty of
shear and modest instability. There is some warm air aloft, but
looking at forecast soundings, the warming combined with the high
dew points will overcome this, at least over areas mentioned.
Skies will clear tonight and winds decreasing, especially across
the south. May see some patchy fog develop in some lower valleys,
but kept out of the forecast for now. Drier air moves in for
Monday with dew points dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s
with some lower to mid 50s out west. This will lead to
temperatures warming up towards 100 degrees, but the heat will be
short lived as a nice cool down is expected in the long term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper level high pressure over our area will begin to flatten on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dive down out of
the Rockies and into the Plains. This will push a cold front into
our area Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Temperatures on
Tuesday ahead of the front will still be hot, with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. Highs will cool down into the 80s for Wednesday
and Thursday. Rain chances (40-60%) are highest on Wednesday when
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the
aforementioned cold front. Models indicate upper level ridging
building back into the region for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites.
There is a chance for isolated to scattered late afternoon and
evening TSRA at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Will continue the TEMPO
group for this activity at KABI. There is less confidence in
coverage farther south, so will not include a mention of TS for
southern terminals just yet. Otherwise, winds will continue to be
mainly out of the south at around 10KTS with a few gusts near
20KTS during the afternoon hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74 100  75  99 /  20   0   0  30
San Angelo  71  98  72  98 /  10   0   0  20
Junction    69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   70  97  71  97 /  10   0   0  20
Sweetwater  72 101  74  98 /  10  10   0  20
Ozona       69  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       70  94  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...99

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion