Lower Matecumbe Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

176
FXUS62 KKEY 251446
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1046 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A quiet and dry morning is unfolding across the Florida Keys. BYX
radar has detected only a few short-lived showers over Keys
coastal waters over the past few hours, and current activity is
about as minimal as we can expect in September. The 12z KKEY
sounding again depicts a somewhat drier layer between 900mb and
450mb, though PWat remains near 2 inches, which is at the 75th
percentile for the date. This is demonstrated by observed shallow
Cu cloud fields on G19 visible satellite imagery, though coverage
is scattered at best. Little indication of convergent flow and few
boundaries seen in this imagery suggest limited shower activity
for the next several hours, so the currently-advertised 20% PoPs
remains sufficient. Observed temperatures in the mid 80s will
continue to rise to near 90F this afternoon, with dew points in
the upper 70s to near 80. Breezes will remain light and variable.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, breezes
will become variable this afternoon within a weak pressure
gradient. An area of low pressure is expected to develop across
the western Atlantic north and northwest of Hispaniola over the
next couple of days. An approaching upper level trough will help
to steer this system northwestward which will further weaken the
pressure gradient initially. This system will continue moving
northwestward in the vicinity of the Bahamas through the weekend
and into early next week. Therefore, breezes are anticipated to
freshen out of the northwest to north.
&&
.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals this
afternoon. While shower and thunderstorm chances sit at 20%,
coverage will be limited at best, and so categorical impacts to
the terminals from this activity will be handled by later
amendment if needed. Breezes will be light and variable through
the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  82  90  82 /  20  10  10  10
Marathon  90  81  90  81 /  20  20  20  20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...MC
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....AP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion