Lower San Francisco Plaza, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

908
FXUS65 KABQ 181125
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 451 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor central to southern New Mexico today,
  shifting to western and central parts of the state on Friday.
- There will be a high risk for burn scar flash flooding over the
  Ruidoso area today with a moderate risk on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 104 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The upper level pattern over the western ConUS and MX includes a
weak, cut-off double barrel low over the northern Great Plains. A
weak eastern Pacific low is also merging with the remnants of
former tropical storm Mario and heading into SoCal while slightly
higher heights are noted over the Mexican mainland. This is
keeping west or northwesterly flow aloft over NM with the
strongest speeds located in the northeastern corner of the state.
Surface winds are shifting north northeasterly in northeastern NM
early this morning as a convectively aided cold pool sags in. This
will keep relatively stable air over northeastern NM with minimal
storms expected there, and much of northwestern to north central
areas will continue to undergo drying with tumbling dewpoints in
a west northwest surface flow. This will keep convective potential
mostly south of I-40 today with the central to south central
mountains getting some light upslope flow on the east faces as the
aforementioned surface boundary settles farther south and west.
CAMs and the HREF indicate convective initiation early this
afternoon over the northern Sacramentos, eventually expanding to
the highlands into northern Lincoln, eastern Socorro, and Torrance
counties, as well as the southwestern peaks of Catron county.
There is still good consensus on the South Fork and Salt burn
scars near Ruidoso observing storms between noon and 3PM, so the
Flash Flood Watch still looks well-warranted, so it will not be
altered. If storms can later develop into Torrance county, enough
directional shear will be present for a couple of strong to severe
cells that will roll towards Guadalupe and De Baca counties, but
this area is quite small. Otherwise, temperatures will cool a few
degrees in northeastern to east central areas today with
negligible changes elsewhere. Any convection or showers that
survive into the late evening or beyond that tonight will be few
and far between.
Into Friday, the remnants of Mario and the eastern Pacific low
will be absorbed inland over northern CA. These features will
draw up a very healthy and anomalously high flux of subtropical
moisture to the Mojave and Sonoran deserts while more subdued
moisture advection occurs into the southern and central parts of
NM via westerly flow. Using ABQ as a proxy for moisture trends,
the HREF shows PWATs dropping to around 0.5 inch this evening
before surging back to a mean of 1.1 inch by late day Friday.
CAMs, including the RRFS and HREF, are at consensus for western
and central NM being favored for storms Friday afternoon into the
evening, but some of the lower resolution and global models have
had some wandering QPF maxima over the past several runs. This
introduced some uncertainty, and the POPs were cautiously tempered
from the NBM on Friday over the western and central zones, but
still likely POPs of 60-70% are fairly widespread over this area.
Sluggish storm motions of 5-15 mph will create some locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding with WPC outlining western
and central areas in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The westerlies will persist into Saturday with a centroid of high
pressure setting up near the Gulf of CA. Much drier air will
overtake NM, and ensembles indicate PWATs will drop to around 0.5
to 0.6 inch in many zones, drastically reducing storm coverage and
individual storm rainfall efficiency. This trend will carry on
into Sunday with the upper high only nudging slightly eastward
over the MX mainland. Ensembles indicate a hint of northwesterly
flow will dip into northeastern NM Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
as a ridge aloft begins to amplify and extend from Mexico into the
Great Basin before leaning more into the Rockies. This would
logically open the door for large scale perturbations to slide
down the plains, potentially dragging cold fronts into at least
northeastern NM. However, even deterministic guidance does not
appear too enthused about these frontal intrusions acting as
triggers for convection Monday through Wednesday. PWATs would
remain fairly low through this time frame, generally around 0.5
inch in northern zones up to near 0.75 inch in southern parts of
the state, so even diurnally driven convection outside of frontal
forcing appears unlikely. Therefore, very isolated POPs have been
built into the forecast for each day through the first half of
next week with daytime highs periodically exceeding normal by 3 to
7 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Early morning shower activity in east central New Mexico will
slowly dwindle through the morning hours. A weak surface front has
also moved into northeastern and east central New Mexico which
will keep low stratus clouds and patchy fog through the post-dawn
hours. Scattered MVFR (ceilings less than 3000ft) and isolated
IFR (ceilings less than 1000 ft) conditions will persist through
the late morning. New thunderstorms will develop over the
Sacramento mountains (near KSRR) and eventually toward the central
highlands (near KCQC and perhaps KSXU), as well as the
southwestern mountains this afternoon. Storms will be capable of
brief heavy downpours and gusty downburst winds with some cells
turning strong to severe, especially just east of the central
mountain chain of New Mexico. Most storms will die off through the
evening with only a few stray showers persisting late tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Wetting rainfall potential will be highest in the southwestern
mountains and the central highlands to adjacent east central
plains this afternoon and evening. Much drier and relatively
stable air will shut down storm potential across much of northern
NM today. In fact, the northwestern quadrant of NM will again
suffer from very low afternoon humidity of 10-20%. However, a
brief but significant subtropical moisture surge will arrive
tonight into Friday, setting the stage for more numerous showers
and thunderstorms. This enhanced crop of storms will elevate the
likelihood of soaking rainfall, at least in western and central NM
Friday afternoon and evening. Good to excellent humidity
recoveries should also follow Friday night with most of northern
and central NM rising to 80% or better by dawn Saturday. The
moisture will quickly leave on Saturday though, with drier
westerly winds aloft preventing storms from developing. Very
sparse storm activity is then forecast Sunday through Wednesday of
next week as a ridge of high pressure gradually builds from
Mexico into the Rockies, cutting much of NM off from any
appreciable moisture intrusions. Temperatures will commonly run
near or slightly above normal through this stretch next week while
afternoon humidity repeatedly drops to 15-25% each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  54  78  54 /   0   0  30  10
Dulce...........................  78  40  76  42 /   0   5  40  20
Cuba............................  78  49  72  48 /   0   5  60  40
Gallup..........................  81  51  75  47 /   0  10  70  20
El Morro........................  78  52  70  48 /   5  20  80  40
Grants..........................  81  51  74  48 /   0  10  80  40
Quemado.........................  79  53  73  49 /  10  20  80  40
Magdalena.......................  77  55  73  53 /  20  20  80  50
Datil...........................  76  51  71  48 /  20  30  80  50
Reserve.........................  84  51  79  50 /  30  40  70  40
Glenwood........................  85  56  83  55 /  30  40  70  40
Chama...........................  72  42  69  42 /   0   5  40  30
Los Alamos......................  74  53  72  52 /   5   5  60  40
Pecos...........................  74  49  73  49 /  10  10  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  73  47  72  46 /   0   0  30  20
Red River.......................  63  39  63  40 /   5   0  30  20
Angel Fire......................  68  34  68  36 /  10   5  30  20
Taos............................  75  45  75  46 /   0   0  30  20
Mora............................  70  44  72  45 /  10  10  40  30
Espanola........................  81  51  78  52 /   0   5  40  30
Santa Fe........................  76  53  74  52 /   5  10  50  40
Santa Fe Airport................  79  52  77  51 /   5  10  40  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  61  79  59 /   5  10  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  85  59  80  58 /   5  10  60  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  58  82  57 /   5  10  60  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  59  80  58 /   0  10  50  40
Belen...........................  86  57  82  56 /   5  20  60  40
Bernalillo......................  85  57  82  57 /   5  10  50  40
Bosque Farms....................  85  56  81  55 /   5  10  60  40
Corrales........................  86  57  82  57 /   5  10  50  40
Los Lunas.......................  85  57  81  56 /   5  10  60  40
Placitas........................  81  57  78  55 /   5  10  50  40
Rio Rancho......................  85  58  81  57 /   0  10  50  40
Socorro.........................  86  59  83  58 /  10  20  60  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  52  74  51 /  10  10  60  40
Tijeras.........................  80  54  78  53 /  10  10  60  40
Edgewood........................  78  50  77  50 /  10  10  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  48  77  48 /  20  20  50  40
Clines Corners..................  72  50  73  50 /  20  20  40  40
Mountainair.....................  77  50  76  51 /  20  20  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  76  51  75  51 /  30  20  60  60
Carrizozo.......................  79  57  77  56 /  40  20  50  60
Ruidoso.........................  70  52  70  52 /  60  20  60  60
Capulin.........................  67  47  75  48 /  10   5   5  10
Raton...........................  71  47  78  47 /  10   5  10  10
Springer........................  73  48  80  48 /  10   5  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  70  48  74  48 /  20  10  40  30
Clayton.........................  71  53  81  57 /  10   5   5  10
Roy.............................  72  51  77  52 /  10  10  10  20
Conchas.........................  77  55  83  58 /  10  10  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  75  53  80  56 /  20  20  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  75  54  83  57 /  10  10  10  30
Clovis..........................  82  58  84  61 /  30  20  10  30
Portales........................  83  58  85  61 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  81  57  83  59 /  30  30  20  40
Roswell.........................  86  61  85  62 /  20  20  20  40
Picacho.........................  79  55  80  57 /  40  20  40  40
Elk.............................  76  53  77  54 /  50  20  50  40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for
NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion