Lucca, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

461
FXUS63 KFGF 030908
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
408 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth today.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Saturday evening parts of eastern North Dakota and far
  northwest Minnesota.
- Potential for widespread 1 inch or more of rain parts of
  northeast North Dakota Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...Synopsis...
500 mb pattern shows center of upper ridge over Kansas and
Oklahoma and a 500 mb trough from Washington sate to central
California with center of a strong upper low just north of San
Francisco. T-storms noted with this upper low in California.
Spread of mostly high and mid level moisture ahead of upper
trough from Nevada into Montana and then spreading east thru
southern Manitoba and parts of NW Ontario. For today and
tonight...some embedded weak impulses at 500 mb will bring a
chance for showers or a few t-storms mainly north of the border.
Some slight chance for precip right along Canadian border,
mostly late evening and overnight Friday Langdon area to
Warroad. Otherwise dry conditions thru tonight across the fcst
area.
...Near record warmth today...
Forecast area in the warm sector today with 850 mb temps
expected to climb 2-3 degrees 12z Fri to 00z Sat. Winds will be
southerly but pressure gradient isnt terribly strong with sfc
winds more in the 15-25 mph range sustained with gusts 35 mph.
mixed layer winds 30 kts within the RRV, highest central RRV.
Highs today once again on high end of guidance and seeing such
850 and 925 mb temps warmer than on Thursday when highs at GFK
and Fargo were 88 and 87 respectively, dont see why highs would
not reach 90. There are some high cloud patches around, but
continuity based on the past few days says unless thick impact
on warming limited. Record highs for today are warmer than they
were Thursday....GFK the exception with record database from
1941 to current shows prev record high Friday 85 in 1976. Grand
Forks UND/NWS and Fargo well into the 90s from 1922.
...Mariginal risk of severe storms Saturday evening and heavy
rain potential...
Saturday will be an interesting day, as much depends on frontal
movement, location. Soundings show a sufficient warm layer and a
few hundred CIN ahead of the front Saturday aftn in warm sector
and models, NBM used for forecast I do think correctly keep warm
sector dry thru 00z Sun. Main surface low develops from
northeast Colorado into central South Dakota Saturday and then
looks to move to near Fargo Saturday night and then towad
Baudette Sunday. With warm sector likely capped, initial shower
and t-storms likely right along or a 20-30 mile area west of
cold front in an area between 850 mb cold front and sfc cold
front where there will remain 500-800 j/kg MUCAPE and atmosphere
is not capped. It is this area where SPC did maintain a marginal
risk for a few storms that may approach severe limits Saturday
evening just behind front from far NW MN to south central ND.
But compared to 24 hours ago,  risk of severe does look less.
Deformation zone steady rain looks to set up Bismarck area thru
Devils Lake to southeast Manitoba into parts of NW Ontario.
Ensembles indicate GFS a bit farther west with max rain band
west of Bismarck to Rugby area, ECMWF a tad more east (with max
closer to GFK) and Canadian Global ensembles in between closer
to NBM.
Rain moves out late Sunday the cooler air moves in with gusty
northwest winds. As skies clear late Sunday night and more
likely Monday night and Tuesday night frost and freeze potential
increases as high pressure moves southeast from Saskatchewan
into the Red River valley Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
High confidence in VFR throughout the TAF period at all sites
except for KBJI where fog may impact the site.
Between 11Z-14Z, there is a medium (40%) chance in fog
developing within Minnesota around the KBJI area. Should fog
develop, it could bring temporary intervals of visibility
reductions as low as 1/2SM or even briefly 1/4SM, and will be
shallow and patchy in depth and coverage. Confidence has grown
since last TAF issuance in this potential, and has been added to
KBJI. While visibility reductions are only down to 1SM, fog may
reduce visibility lower.
Winds will remain calm and variable tonight through sunrise,
before increasing out of the south up to 12kt starting around
18Z. Gusts to 25kt are forecast at KGFK and KFAR between 21Z-00Z
Friday afternoon.
Good signal in guidance for wind shear already showing up after
00Z Friday evening. There is high confidence in this developing
and impacting TAF sites after 00Z Friday evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion