895 FXUS64 KOHX 261648 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1142 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Low rain chances across the Plateau this afternoon and Saturday. Areas west remain dry with warming temperatures.
- Overall dry weather into early next week with temperatures remaining above-normal.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1113 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
If you are west of the plateau, you are enjoying the sun this morning after several days of unsettled weather. There is an upper low centered over the western portion of the CWA which is evident on water vapor imagery. That is continuing to provide some lift over the eastern third of the CWA. Some additional showers will be possible through the afternoon along the plateau. Elsewhere, enjoy the sun and pleasant temperatures. Shower activity over the east will decrease after sunset with areas of fog developing after midnight. Saturday will get off to a nice start with lows mainly in the 50s. The upper low will make some eastern progress with Middle Tennessee on the backside of the low Saturday afternoon. A low chance of showers will remain over the plateau from the late morning through the afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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.LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1113 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
By Sunday, the upper low will have transitioned to an upper wave and will be far enough east to take the low rain chances out of our east. Temperatures will be about 3-5 degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 80s. To start next week, Middle Tennessee will be sandwiched between a broad upper low over the Carolinas and broad upper ridging centered over the upper Midwest. We`ll be keeping an eye on the Atlantic as a tropical system will be off the Carolina coast and likely be pulled ashore thanks to the upper level weakness. Some of the tropical moisture may be pulled far enough west for some low rain chances to return to our eastern counties by mid to late week but confidence is pretty low. Temperatures in the extended will continue to run 3-5 degrees above normal for late September.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR will prevail area-wide this afternoon. Isolated showers along the Cumberland Plateau will be handled with VCSH at CSV. For tonight, fog/stratus will impact CSV and SRB after 04Z with episodes of LIFR. CKV will have brief episodes of MVFR vsby. All sites will return to VFR by 16Z Saturday. Winds will be north to northwest around 6KT daytime and lighter at night.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 62 84 59 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 82 58 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 75 58 75 56 / 40 10 30 0 Columbia 80 58 83 56 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 77 59 78 56 / 30 10 20 0 Jamestown 75 58 76 56 / 30 10 20 0 Lawrenceburg 79 58 81 56 / 20 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 81 60 83 56 / 20 0 10 0 Waverly 80 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....13
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion