Machias, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

291
FXUS61 KCAR 021843
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
243 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains ridged south of the waters Friday through
the weekend and into Monday. On Tuesday, high pressure slides
south as a cold front approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Clear skies continue through this evening as high pressure
continues to dominate the pattern over the region. Some high
level clouds may move through the first half of the night, but
could quickly exit to the east through the second half of the
night. With light winds in place, surface decoupling may once
again lead to temperatures falling into the 30s over much of the
forecast area, and lower 40s closer to the coast. Areas of frost
could develop across the north, especially in colder valleys
should skies stay mostly clear. Patchy river valley fog will
return through the early morning hours on Friday.
Mostly clear skies continue through the day on Friday, with
seasonably warm temperatures lifting into the upper 60s to lower
70s. A weak trough of low pressure will approach from the north
Friday night, and in addition to an increase in cloud cover
across the north, this feature could bring a few rain showers to
the St. John Valley. Little to no measurable rainfall is
expected with this event. Temperatures Friday night will be more
mild, only dipping into the mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough is expected to dive in towards northern Maine
from the northwest and may result in some scattered showers
over northern Aroostook Saturday morning. Models have been
expressing some uncertainty over the last several runs in
regards to timing and strength but overall the shortwave has
trended stronger and faster. Soundings show some instability so
precipitation might be in the form of convective showers. The
shortwave clears out of the area Saturday afternoon.
On Saturday night, as a strengthening low pressure system over
the central US moves northeastward, the attendant warm front is
expected to move north through the area. A few light showers
along the boundary are possible Sunday morning. As the warm
front moves off to the north, south/southwest flow in the warm
sector of the low will help to bring warm, moist air into the
region resulting in well above average temperatures on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Maine remains in the warm sector of a low moving northeast into
Canada on Monday and Tuesday. South/southwesterly flow will
continue to favor well above average temperatures despite the
relatively low sun angle during this time of year. The warmest
temperatures are expected on Monday where highs may approach
some daily records. By Tuesday evening, the cold front of the
low approaches from the west with showers developing first in
western Maine and then spreading east throughout the day on
Wednesday. Increasing confidence that there will be a rain event
but there is still uncertainty in regards to how much rain will
fall, the coverage, as well as the exact timing.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected to continue across all
terminals tonight through Friday and into Friday night. Some
patchy fog could develop in river valleys tonight and Friday
night, but impact to any terminals is expected to be limited,
and most likely present as BCFG. Some brief LLWS is possible at
KFVE around this time as well, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAF at this time. Winds light and variable during
the night, with Friday winds SW at 5 to 10 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday through Sunday...Occasional MVFR possible north.
Otherwise, VFR. Slight chance of showers north Saturday morning then
again early Sunday. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 kts Saturday,
becoming light and southerly Saturday night. South/southwest
winds Sunday at 5 to 10 kts.
Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. Light southwest winds
Sunday night. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Monday. Light
south/southwest winds Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain below small craft
advisory levels through Friday night.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Saturday through Sunday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RHs Friday are expected to drop to the 30-40%
range. Good RH recovery expected during the overnight hours.
Winds relatively light at 5-10 mph. Much warmer temperatures in
the 70s expected Saturday through early next week but dry.
Winds each day expected to generally be less than 15 mph. A
passing cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday is likely to
bring some precipitation to the area but confidence is low in a
widespread wetting rain.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures should enter a warming trend through Monday with
highs expected to be well above average. The warmest day is
likely to be on Monday where highs should be in the upper 70s
and may approach 80. High temperatures should be close to and
may break the records of 74 in Caribou, 73 in Houlton, 82 in
Millinocket, and 84 in Bangor.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...AStrauser/Melanson
Marine...AStrauser/Melanson
Fire Weather...Melanson
Climate...AStrauser/Melanson

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion