Macune, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS64 KSHV 211713
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Expect highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s again today with
   afternoon thunderstorms returning across southern zones.
- Scattered thunderstorm chances will continue on a daily basis
   through the week ahead.
- The most noteworthy rainfall chances arrive midweek areawide,
   accompanied by highs cooling from the 90s to 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Portions of the ArkLaTex may see patchy fog development overnight
tonight, though fairly scattered in nature, largely confined to deep
eats Texas near the Toledo Bend country, as well as hillier areas of
southern Arkansas. Following in the footsteps of the last several
nights, temperatures will drop into the middle to upper 60s across
the majority of the region, with the warmest sites just managing to
remain in the 70s by daybreak. Chances of showers and storms look
to return during the afternoon Sunday. Absent large scale upper
level forcing, these storms look to be driven by daytime heating
and southerly surface flow, pulsing up during the late afternoon
and early evening, and dropping off sharply after sunset. Highs
look to aim solidly for the upper 80s to lower 90s once again,
followed by lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Entering into the new work week, a weak troughing feature overhead
will help instigate renewed convection across our northwest early
Monday, accompanied by additional slight chances firing up in the
afternoon and trending off overnight while storms to the north
attempt to linger. That discernible trough will start to flatten out
while a much more potent closed low intensifies over the Rockies
of Colorado and Wyoming. The jury is still out as to whether the
low will remain closed throughout, at one point potentially
forming an almost sideways trough extending along an axis from the
Front Range of Colorado to the Great Lakes before the low
reorganizes over the upper midwest, loses structure and distends
as it takes shape once again. Throughout, the ArkLaTex, positioned
to the due south or southwest of said feature, looks to wobble
between pseudo-zonal and northwest flow.
Ultimately, the long term story remains the same as in recent
discussions, with an unsettled pattern in store for the course of
the week ahead. The showers and storms keeping to the north of the I-
30 corridor will make more of an effort to push southwards into the
day Tuesday, initiating a near continuous stretch of areawide
rainfall chances continuing through Thursday. As the upper level
flow continues contributing to an unsettled pattern, scattered
rainfall chances will close out the work week, only becoming more
isolated to mostly dry into next weekend. High temperatures look to
remain above average for areas which keep mostly dry Monday and
Tuesday, with long range guidance still suggesting a rain-driven
cool down to the 80s Wednesday and Thursday continuing through to
the end of the forecast period, with lows in the 60s and 70s
throughout.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
South to southwest winds up to 10 knots this afternoon to become
around 4 to 8 knots overnight, and again increasing to 5 to 10
knots on Monday as high pressure remains anchored to the east.
Otherwise, VCTS conditions may be possible this afternoon with
the onset of afternoon heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions to
prevail through the period. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  70  92  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  68  89  70  90 /  20  40  30  50
TXK  72  92  73  94 /  10  20  20  40
ELD  68  90  70  92 /  10  20  10  30
TYR  72  91  73  92 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  70  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  70  92  72  94 /  10  20   0  30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion