Manning Cemetery, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

560
FXUS62 KMHX 261055
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
655 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will approach from the west today eventually stalling
across Eastern NC tonight. This stalled frontal boundary will
move little through early next week bringing a prolonged period
of unsettled weather. As we get into next week we will be
monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Humberto and Invest
94L. Strong high pressure looks to build in from the north by
about mid week next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 655 AM Friday...
Key Messages
- Increased risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty
   winds
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front well off to the west
near the Appalachians, with some widely scattered showers noted
to the north and west, as well as off the coast of ENC this
morning. Outside of some scattered low and mid level clouds
expecting mostly sunny skies to dominate the morning hours
today.
As we get into today, an upper level shortwave is forecast to
lift NE out of the AL/GA vicinity, reaching ENC by tonight.
While at the surface, aforementioned cold front will continue
to slowly track east and eventually reach ENC by this
afternoon/evening. The combination of improved lift, both aloft
and at the SFC, should support an increase in coverage of
showers and thunderstorms compared to Thursday. Overall expect
the morning hours to remain dry and as the seabreeze begins to
move inland and meets the incoming front expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop quickly in the afternoon across the
Coastal Plain. Will note while we expect precip to be more
widespread today there could be areas across ENC that see little
to no rainfall, so in general have Chc to Likely PoP`s in
place. With PWATs generally around 1.75-2.0", expect any shower
or storm that develops to be an efficient rainmaker. While
storm motions will likely be quick, could see some training
storms especially across the Hwy 17 corridor which could lead
to some isolated flash flooding across urban, small stream, and
poor drainage areas. HREF LPMM values generally show widespread
0.5-1.5" of rain across the area with max values closer to 2-4"
which could bring some much welcome rain to ENC today. Only
reason for a lower flash flooding risk today is due to how dry
the area has been these past several weeks. As a result, WPC has
placed the area under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
excessive rainfall today. Once again, deep layer shear is
forecast to be around 25kt, which should support some storm
organization. The shear/instability combo appears supportive of
gusty winds (40-50 mph) in the strongest storms.
Highs today get into the upper 80s to near 90 inland and into
the mid 80s along the OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...
Key Messages
- Continued risk of showers and thunderstorms overnight
Aforementioned front eventually stalls either near or just off
the coast tonight and moves little. While at the upper levels
first shortwave tracks across ENC and moves out of the area
with another shortwave approaching ENC near daybreak. This will
bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms
across ENC tonight. May see a lull in activity late tonight in
between shortwaves before chances increase again towards
daybreak. Will continue to have a low end chance for some
isolated flash flooding tonight as well. Given ample cloud
cover and expected precip, temps wont cool down much and we
will remain muggy with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Fri...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled pattern is expected across ENC through the period,
   with above climo precip chances
- Monitoring the evolution of Invest 94L and TC Humberto over
  the next several days for any indirect or direct impacts to
  ENC next week
There remains average to above average confidence in the large
scale upper level pattern through Sat/Sun with lower confidence
later in the period towards early next week. As a result, have
leaned on more of the ensemble and AI guidance later in the
forecast period in order to focus on the overall pattern, and
hash out specifics as we get closer to next week. Biggest
challenge in the long term will be the eventual track of Invest
94L and TS Humberto.
Saturday...Positively tilted upper level trough stretching from
the interior NE to the Deep South will eventually take on a
more neutral to slightly negative tilt and cut off from the
upper level flow somewhere around the TN River Valley/SE. The
exact track and strength of this upper low will potentially have
a part in the track of Invest 94L later in the weekend and
early next week. Will note, still a fair amount of uncertainty
with the exact track and speed of this upper low. At the
surface, cold front will remain stalled near the coast through
Sat. This will likely promote periods of scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms across ENC. While not expecting
severe weather, could see training storms and therefore a low
end (15% or less) chance at excessive rainfall. With PWATs up
around 1.5-2.0 inches rain could become heavy at times promoting
a risk for heavy/excessive rainfall with iso flash flood risk.
High temps in the 80s Sat with lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.
Sunday into Thu...Higher than avg uncertainty expected in the
forecast Sun onwards given very complicated upper level pattern
around the Eastern Seaboard which leads into the big question
which is what will happen with Invest 94L and TS Humberto early
next week. Will go over the upper level pattern and challenges
and then potential solutions below.
Upper level cutoff low will meander around the Southeast and
TN River Valley through early next week. Have followed recent
trends in the AI and ECWMF ensemble guidance which shows the
upper low pushing NE`wards early next week and exiting out to
sea by midweek as another trough dives SE`wards from the
Canadian Maritimes and provides an escape route for this upper
low out ahead of an upper level ridge to the west which will be
approaching at the end of the period. Key challenge here will be
the eventual track of the upper low as models notoriously have
a hard time handling this type of pattern and this low could
have an impact on the eventual track of Invest 94L. Otherwise
temps stay about or just below avg through the remainder of the
long term given expected ample cloud cover and widespread
precip. At the surface, stalled front remains over the coast
through early next week before dissipating keeping things
unsettled through at least Tue with daily chances for showers
and storms across the region. Strong high pressure ridging
begins to build down across the region as well on Tue/Wed from
the north and west. At the same time TC Humberto and Invest 94L
look to be tracking NW to N on Sun and Mon with Invest 94L
potentially getting organized enough after it departs Hispaniola
earlier in the weekend to develop into a TD/TS around the
Bahamas. TS Humberto looks to continue off to the north and
eventually the NE closer to Bermuda as an upper trough leaves an
escape route for the system. The evolution of Invest 94L is
where the greatest uncertainty comes into play as multiple
features will play a role in the eventual track of the
disturbance.
The first will be the speed in which Invest 94L develops. If
the system develops faster a quicker northward motion may occur
with greater impacts to the area, if slower development occurs
more interaction with TC Humberto is likely to occur limiting
impacts across ENC. The second will be the cutoff low in the
Southeast which if it moves far enough east could help to steer
94L closer to the coast. Finally an incoming ridge of high
pressure from the north could block the escape route of both
Humberto and 94L making the forecast even more complicated. With
this in mind and after taking a look at the 00Z ensemble
guidance it appears there will be three possible solutions for
early next week. The most likely as of right now is that after
94L tracks across Hispaniola, it will gradually develop on
Mon/Tue into a TD/TS and begin interacting with TS Humberto
resulting in a rare phenomena called the Fujiwara effect. With
94L likely being the weaker system at the time, TS Humberto will
flex its muscles on the disturbance creating an area of
enhanced wind shear over 94L keeping the system weak as well as
allowing 94L to attempt to circle around Humberto thus keeping
both systems out to sea and resulting in more indirect impacts
to ENC. The second solution which is currently less likely is
that 94L develops faster and the cut off low to its west is
closer to the coast allowing for less impact from Humberto and
thus allowing for a stronger system that moves more N/NW than NE
and brings more direct impacts to the area. Finally the least
likely solution is that Hispaniola disturbs the low level center
of 94L enough to result in no formation and TS Humberto
remaining well out to sea. Both systems expected to bring some
level of impacts to the area, though specifics are uncertain at
this time. Will continue to monitor for specifics over the next
few days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 655 AM Fri...
Key Messages
- TSRA impacts possible today
 - MVFR TO IFR cigs possible tonight
Low clouds and lower vis never developed overnight, so expecting
VFR conditions through at least this morning and potentially as
late as mid afternoon across ENC today. By this afternoon a
cold front is forecast to reach ENC and as this occurs will
likely bring scattered to potentially widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Greatest concentration for showers and
storms across ENC will likely be where the Seabreeze and front
intersect this afternoon bringing the potential for sub-VFR
conditions to ENC. To account for this, have MVFR ceilings and a SHRA
mention and a PROB30 group for thunder at all TAF sites
starting between 18/19Z and going into Sat night. Will need to
fine tune the thunder forecast as we get closer to this
afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the
decrease as we get into late tonight. Steady SW`rly winds are
forecast today before winds become light and variable at times
tonight behind an approaching cold front.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 AM Fri...
Key Messages
- Unsettled pattern will bring unfavorable flying conditions
   to ENC into early next week.
A cold front is forecast to stall across the region this
weekend. This front will then move little through early next
week. As a result, will likely see an extended period with a
higher likelihood of sub-VFR conditions across ENC as scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the
area. Ceilings and vis will likely be reduced within any rain
and thunderstorm activity while outside of this activity periods
of VFR may be found between precip chances. Still some
uncertainty with the track and intensity of next potential
tropical low, but there is potential for gusty winds and heavy
rain early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 310 AM Friday...
Key Messages
- Increased risk of thunderstorm impacts Friday/Friday night
South to southwest winds at 10-15kts are currently noted across
our waters and will continue across all our waters into this
afternoon out ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold
front nears the coast and stalls tonight, expect the pressure
gradient to relax some allowing winds to become light lowering
down to 5-10 kts overnight and become SE`rly. Seas of 2-4 ft at
8-9s are expected through Friday night.
The risk for showers and thunderstorms across our waters
increases during the afternoon and evening hours as the cold
front moves into the area. Locally enhanced winds and seas are
possible within the strongest storms that impact our waters.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 AM Fri...
Key Message
- Deteriorating marine conditions expected as early as Sun/Mon
Cold front is expected to stall near the coast this weekend.
This is forecast to bring a prolonged period of scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the waters. A few storms could be
strong in nature resulting in locally enhanced winds and seas.
Sat seas remain at 2-3 ft while the winds back to a S-SE at
5-15 kts. As we get into Sun and Mon, high pressure ridge begins
to build in from the north and with Invest 94L and TC Humberto
off to the south and east expect the gradient to tighten some
allowing winds to gradually increase to 10-15 kts on Sun and
then 15-25 kts on Mon. Winds will gradually become NE`rly by Mon
as well. At the same time, seas across the coastal waters will
build, with 3-5 ft seas now forecast by Sun and then 4-7 ft seas
by Mon. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with track and
intensity of the next potential tropical low, but continued to
increase winds early to mid next week with potential for strong
NE winds and dangerous seas. At the very least this will begin
our period of unsettled marine conditions with at the bare
minimum, SCA conditions currently forecast with potential for
gales.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 AM Fri...Long period swell from distant TC Humberto
is forecast to reach ENC beaches as early as Monday, then peak
Tuesday and Wednesday. Swell impacts may last much of the
upcoming week, and include dangerous rip currents, large
breaking waves, and the potential for ocean overwash and wave
runup impacts. In the wake of the tropical systems, a period of
strong onshore winds associated with a cold front may heighten
impacts along the coast, while also increasing the risk for
soundside impacts later in the work-week. Stay tuned through the
week for updates on the areas of greatest impact, and the
magnitude of those impacts.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion