Mapleton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

925
FXUS63 KSGF 141932
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot weather to continue into the start of the week coupled
  with isolated to scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm
  chances (15-40%). Isolated instances of downburst wind gusts
  up to 40-50 mph could occur with any isolated stronger storm,
  especially Monday afternoon.
- A mid-week pattern change will initiate a cooling trend with
  better rain chances (30-60%) Wednesday into Thursday.
  Lingering low rain chances continue into the weekend.
- Despite the daily chances of rain...overall rainfall will be
  modest this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Our first beautiful comma-head midlatitude cyclone of the season
can be seen churning away across the west-central Plains on
mid-level water vapor imagery, as a compact shortwave ejects
off of the Rocky Mountains. Despite this development over the
past 24 hours, the big picture synoptic pattern has largely
remained the same with longwave, moisture-laden troughing over
the west CONUS, rather steep and meridional, but drier
troughing over the east CONUS, leaving a very long and steep
ridge axis stretching from east TX up to Lake Superior and
northward. The surface pattern also has remained static with the
slightly deepened low pressure system over SD, a southward
extending cold front, and an east-southeastward extending
warm/stationary front across the Upper Mississippi River
Valley.
Hot weather to continue into the start of the week:
Thanks to the static pattern highs today are on track to meet
yesterday`s standards with temperatures in the lower to middle
90s. The same goes for Monday, though increased high cloud cover
may keep highs a tad cooler. Lows will also be mild in the
middle to upper 60s.
15-30% chance of showers and storms in the eastern Ozarks today:
As of 2 PM CDT, an increasingly agitated cumulus field is
present across the eastern Ozarks. Some light shower echoes have
also been noted on radar imagery. The cumulus field is
developing in an area of increased moisture along the
aforementioned warm/stationary front. Areas westward across the
Ozark Plateau have quickly mixed out to the upper 50s today. In
fact, surface analysis seems to point to a local "Ozarks
dryline" today, with the higher terrain of the Plateau quickly
drying out, spreading eastward to the lower terrain of the
eastern Ozarks. Surface observations even show light westerly
winds interacting with light easterly winds where the moisture
gradient is setup in a line from Eldon down to West Plains. The
weak convergence along this line should be the focus for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
(15-30% chances) within the more moist and unstable air mass in
the eastern Ozarks.
While instability is higher in this area, RAP forecast soundings
still show skinny CAPE profiles much like yesterday. Therefore,
behavior of storms are expected to be largely the same with
small pulse-like showers and a few thunderstorms. Yesterday, we
saw a few 30-40 mph wind gusts as the cores of these storms
collapsed, and with thermodynamic profiles largely matching
yesterday, this can be expected today. The large majority of
cells will be showers, though a few thunderstorms could develop
with one or two becoming strong enough for 30-40 mph downburst
wind gusts.
Some short-term guidance like the RAP/HRRR/RRFS suggest that
outflow chain forcing of storms along with a weak 700 mb front
pushing west into the area may keep shower and thunderstorm
chances around after sunset and into the early overnight hours.
There`s a bit of uncertainty in this scenario, but have kept
15-20% probability for precipitation through midnight in the
eastern Ozarks.
15-40% chance of showers and storms across the region Monday:
As the trough slowly approaches from the west, and the
warm/stationary surface front slowly retrogrades westward into
our area Monday, moisture--and as a result, instability--will
slightly increase compared to today. Additionally, drier/cooler
air from the approaching trough will steepen mid-level lapse
rates above already steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km from
strong daytime heating/mixing. Due to the better thermodynamics
and lift in place, chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms increase across the region Monday afternoon to
15-40%. Additionally, these parameters introduce a strong
downburst potential as the Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm
Index increases across the region. Therefore, some isolated
thunderstorms may produce downburst wind gusts up to 40-50 mph
Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Hot weather to continue Tuesday and some of the area Wednesday:
Global models continue to prog the current pattern to be mostly
static through Tuesday as the two troughs churn away in their
respective locations. This leaves upper-level deformation and
mid-level high pressure to remain over our area for this
period. As previously mentioned, the static nature of the
pattern is leading to very high confidence in temperatures with
NBM spreads at less than 2-5 degrees. Therefore, highs are
expected to continue to be in the lower to mid-90s through
Tuesday, with lows in the middle to upper 60s. Highs in the
lower to middle 90s are still expected Wednesday east of
Highway 65 as the cold front approaches from the west. Lows
Wednesday night will still be mild in the lower to middle 60s.
15-40% chances of showers and storms across the region Tuesday:
Once again, since the pattern will be static, lingering moisture
and instability along and southwest of the NW-SE oriented
warm/stationary front along the Mississippi River Valley brings
continued 15-40% chances for afternoon pop-up showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday. The best chances are along and on either
side of the Highway 65 corridor where better instability and
surface convergence is forecast to be.
Best rain chances with next system Wednesday and Thursday:
The western trough is then forecast to finally make its way
across the central Plains during the middle of next week.
Cluster analysis still shows some uncertainty in shape,
intensity, and timing, but the grand ensemble has trended to a
bit slower progression. The greater forcing during this time
period then brings better chances for more widespread rain and
thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday (30-60% chance). There
has been a very slight uptick in forecasted amounts from the NBM
mean as global models begin to converge, however, QPF clusters
are still not overly excited about any sort of "washouts", with
the vast majority of models keeping amounts well below an inch
through next week.
Cooling trend into next weekend following the mid-week system:
As lower heights enter the region following the system, NBM
mean temperatures continue to show a decreasing trend to near
normal. Though there is still quite a bit of spread as we get
past the next system (for example, we could see highs as low as
the upper 70s or as high as the upper 80s), the overall trend is
a decrease into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the
entire TAF period at all sites. The medium-low portion of the
confidence comes from a very low chance for an isolated shower
to develop at any of the sites between 19-02Z. The best chances
are east of the sites, leaving a 10-20% chance of one occurring
at SGF, BBG, and/or JLN, which is too low to include in the TAF.
AMDs will be made if confidence increases.
Otherwise, winds will be south-southwesterly today at 8-12 kts,
becoming light and variable after 02-04Z. A shield of high
cirrus clouds will dominate much of the period, with a sparse cu
field also expected at 6-8 kft between 19-02Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
3 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 14:
KVIH: 99/1971
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
September 15:
KSGF: 74/1936
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion